Match Info

Liga 1 - Clausura - Round 10

Date: 22 September 2025, Monday

Location: Estadio Campeones del 36 (Sullana)

Referee: Garcia C. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Fanatiz
Peru	Liga 1 Play
Usa	Fanatiz


	Alianza Atlético		Ayacucho

	1	X	2
	1.5	4	6.5	Watch
				Watch
	1.52	3.65	7.1
	1.52	3.85	7.22
	1.13	7.74	18.46	Watch
	1.5	4	6.51	Watch
	1.54	3.8	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↓ (1.54)	4.51 ↑ (3.8)	8.47 ↑ (5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alianza Atlético
67%

Draw
21.6%

Ayacucho
11.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.4%

23.7%

18%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.5%

22.5%

17.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alianza Atlético has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alianza Atlético's performance.

Ayacucho has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ayacucho might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alianza Atlético than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alianza Atlético that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ayacucho than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ayacucho could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90%	10%	0%

Alianza Atlético - Ayacucho Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Alianza Atlético (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Ayacucho (2.43) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Alianza Atlético will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.41% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Alianza Atlético (votes: 1 - 50%). Ayacucho (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Melian D. (C) 30. Guzman P. 21. Perleche E. 23. Olmedo L. 8. Illanes F. 15. Lupu H. 4. Villegas J. C. 20. Perez J. 29. Graneros A. 24. Gordillo A. 11. Larios Saavedra G. A.	23. Valencia J. (G) 29. Falconi J. 22. Bilbao J. 55. Leon Canchanya B. H. 3. Ganoza M. 18. Orue D. 96. Peral P. 27. Barrios K. 25. Ataupillco J. 77. Lucumi J. 24. Perez Azambuya E. M.
Substitutes
13. Benincasa H. 7. Castro R. 17. del Castillo J. 27. Diaz R. 16. Fernandez S. 33. Flores F. 19. Perez M. 95. Prieto D. (G) 3. Vasquez C.	26. Aquino H. 88. Arakaki H. 99. Caballero F. 66. de la Cruz A. 1. Izaguirre P. (G) 33. Salcedo R. 4. Yovera A.
Coaches
Ameli G.	Castellanos S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
6', Ataupillco J. ↓, Yovera A. ↑,
8', 1 - 0, Graneros A. ⚽, Olmedo L. (A),
14', 2 - 0, Graneros A. ⚽, Gordillo A. (A),
43', Gordillo A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Lucumi J. ↓, Salcedo R. ↑,
46', Barrios K. ↓, Arakaki H. ↑,
46', Orue D. ↓, de la Cruz A. ↑,
56', 3 - 0, Larios Saavedra G. A. ⚽, Lupu H. (A),
63', Lupu H. ↓, Benincasa H. ↑,
63', Larios Saavedra G. A. ↓, Diaz R. ↑,
63', Olmedo L. ↓, Castro R. ↑,
64', Ganoza M. 🟨,
70', Peral P. 🟥,
71', Gordillo A. ↓, Vasquez C. ↑,
76', Diaz R. 🟨,
79', Graneros A. ↓, Perez M. ↑,
81', Perez Azambuya E. M. ↓, Caballero F. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alianza Atlético won 3.

Recent form of Alianza Atlético has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Ayacucho has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Alianza Atlético is the undisputed favorite.

There are questionable in Alianza Atlético: Ysique F. (Injury)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Alianza Atlético won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 17:22. (average 1.1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Alianza Atlético won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:9. (average 1.3:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alianza Atlético
Peruvian Liga 1
17.09.25	Sporting Cristal - Alianza Atlético	0:0 ✺
13.09.25	Alianza Atlético - Juan Pablo II College	0:1 ✺
17.08.25	Cusco - Alianza Atlético	1:0 ✺
11.08.25	Alianza Atlético - Cajamarca	2:0 ✺
06.08.25	Escuela Municipal Binacional - Alianza Atlético	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 TLLWL
- Ayacucho FC
Peruvian Liga 1
18.09.25	Ayacucho - Cusco	0:1 ✺
12.09.25	Cajamarca - Ayacucho	0:1 ✺
22.08.25	Ayacucho - Escuela Municipal Binacional	Canceled ✺
17.08.25	FBC Melgar - Ayacucho	2:1 ✺
09.08.25	Ayacucho - Alianza Lima	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LW?LL

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
26.04.25	Ayacucho - Alianza Atlético	0:2
19.09.22	Ayacucho - Alianza Atlético	2:0
01.05.22	Alianza Atlético - Ayacucho	2:1
21.09.21	Ayacucho - Alianza Atlético	0:1
Peruvian Copa Bicentenario
16.06.21	Ayacucho - Alianza Atlético	1:0 penalties
Peruvian Liga 1
15.04.21	Alianza Atlético - Ayacucho	0:1
19.11.17	Alianza Atlético - Ayacucho	0:2

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