Match Info

Liga 1 - Clausura - Round 9

Date: 18 September 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio Ciudad de Cumana (Ayacucho)

Referee: Haro D. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Fanatiz
Peru	Liga 1 Play
Usa	Fanatiz


	Ayacucho		Cusco

	1	X	2
	3.7	3.3	2	Watch
	3.6	3.35	2	Watch
	3.83	3.28	2.06
	6.88	4.38	1.44	Watch
	3.65	3.34	2.05	Watch
	3.35	3.25	2.02
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.17 ↑ (2.88)	3.48 ↑ (3.44)	1.93 ↓ (2.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ayacucho
22.9%

Draw
27.5%

Cusco
49.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.8%

27.4%

39.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.4%

27.1%

40.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ayacucho has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ayacucho's form might have worsened.

Cusco has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Cusco's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ayacucho than the current prediction. (+9.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ayacucho, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cusco than the current prediction. (-9.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Cusco, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	10.5%	89.5%

Ayacucho - Cusco Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Cusco will win (votes: 17 - 89.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 10.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cusco: 75.7% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Ayacucho (1.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Cusco (1.45) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

DNB - Cusco (1.44) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Cusco will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Ayacucho (votes: 1 - 6.3%). Cusco (votes: 15 - 93.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Valencia J. (G) 29. Falconi J. 22. Bilbao J. 55. Leon Canchanya B. H. 12. Caro D. 18. Orue D. 96. Peral P. 88. Arakaki H. 27. Barrios K. 66. de la Cruz A. 99. Caballero F.	28. Diaz P. (G) 8. Fuentes A. 19. Gamarra C. 6. Ampuero A. 24. Ruidias M. 16. Valenzuela O. 22. Colitto L. 14. Diez C. 10. Colman I. (C) 7. Da Silva P. 9. Callejo F.
Substitutes
25. Ataupillco J. 3. Ganoza M. 1. Izaguirre P. (G) 77. Lucumi J. 24. Perez Azambuya E. M. 8. Ramirez D. 33. Salcedo R. 16. Vilchez J. 4. Yovera A.	32. Aquino J. 5. Aucca M. 4. Custodio A. 3. Milesi A. 26. Silva N. 11. Tevez J. 13. Vidal A. (G) 21. Zevallos J.
Coaches
Castellanos S.	Rondelli M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
2', Bilbao J. 🟨,
6', Ruidias M. 🟨,
10', 0 - 1, Colitto L. ⚽, Callejo F. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
57', Barrios K. ↓, Lucumi J. ↑,
63', Leon Canchanya B. H. 🟨,
70', Caballero F. ↓, Perez Azambuya E. M. ↑,
70', de la Cruz A. ↓, Salcedo R. ↑,
75', Colitto L. ↓, Silva N. ↑,
75', Ruidias M. ↓, Zevallos J. ↑,
81', Da Silva P. 🟨,
82', Caro D. ↓, Yovera A. ↑,
83', Diez C. ↓, Aucca M. ↑,
83', Da Silva P. ↓, Tevez J. ↑,
86', Salcedo R. 🟨,
90+2', Callejo F. ↓, Milesi A. ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 16 and 2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ayacucho won 1.

In recent matches, Ayacucho has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Cusco is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Cusco could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ayacucho won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 22:37. (average 1.1:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Ayacucho won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 17:15. (average 1.5:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ayacucho FC
Peruvian Liga 1
12.09.25	Cajamarca - Ayacucho	0:1 ✺
22.08.25	Ayacucho - Escuela Municipal Binacional	Canceled ✺
17.08.25	FBC Melgar - Ayacucho	2:1 ✺
09.08.25	Ayacucho - Alianza Lima	0:1 ✺
03.08.25	Sport Huancayo - Ayacucho	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 W?LLL
- Cusco FC
Peruvian Liga 1
14.09.25	Cusco - Sporting Cristal	3:2 ✺
22.08.25	Juan Pablo II College - Cusco	0:0 ✺
17.08.25	Cusco - Alianza Atlético	1:0 ✺
04.08.25	Cajamarca - Cusco	1:2 ✺
31.07.25	Cusco - Escuela Municipal Binacional	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
19.04.25	Cusco - Ayacucho	3:0
11.09.21	Ayacucho - Cusco	1:3
20.11.20	Ayacucho - Cusco	3:1
01.10.20	Ayacucho - Cusco	1:1
02.11.19	Ayacucho - Cusco	1:1
18.05.19	Cusco - Ayacucho	3:0
25.11.18	Ayacucho - Cusco	1:1

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