Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 4

Date: 6 May 2025, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Alejandro Villanueva (Lima) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	Sporty TV, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium
Argentina	19:00	Disney+, FOX Sports 3
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3
Australia	08:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Bosnia And Herzegovina	00:00	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Brazil	19:00	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	01:00	Max Sport 4
Canada	18:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol
Chile	18:00	Disney+
Colombia	17:00	Disney+, ESPN 2
Croatia	00:00	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Georgia	02:00	Silk Universal
Germany	00:00	Sportdigital+
Greece	01:00	COSMOTE Sport 3
Indonesia	05:00	Mola TV
Israel	01:00	Sport 2
Italy	00:00	Como TV
Mexico	16:00	Disney+, ESPN 2
Peru	17:00	Disney+, ESPN
Portugal	23:00	Sport TV2
Russia	01:00	Okko Sport
Serbia	00:00	Arena Premium 3
South America	—	ESPN 5 South, ESPN South, ViX Latin America
Uruguay	19:00	Disney+
Usa	18:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network, Tubi TV
Venezuela	18:00	Disney+, Inter


	Alianza Lima		São Paulo

	1	X	2
	3.5	2.9	2.3	Watch
	3.6	2.9	2.2
	3.6	2.88	2.28	Watch
	3.77	2.88	2.35
	3.66	2.86	2.34	Watch
	3.7	2.8	2.2	Watch
	3.54	2.94	2.33	Watch
	3.5	2.85	2.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.61 ↑ (3.3)	2.88 ↓ (2.98)	2.29 ↓ (2.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alianza Lima
26.1%

Draw
32.8%

São Paulo
41.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

28.9%

32%

39.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.8%

33.3%

40.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alianza Lima has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Lima than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
5.3%	36.8%	57.9%

Alianza Lima - São Paulo Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Alianza Lima will win (votes: 1 - 5.9%). São Paulo will win (votes: 10 - 58.8%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 35.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for São Paulo: 35.4% – 82.2%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Alianza Lima (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): São Paulo will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Alianza Lima (votes: 3 - 25%). São Paulo (votes: 9 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Viscarra G. (G) 14. Huaman M. 4. Noriega E. 6. Garces R. 21. Trauco M. 7. Gaibor F. 8. Castillo E. 15. Castillo J. 20. Lavandeira Hernandez P. 27. Quevedo K. 34. Paolo Guerrero (C)	23. Rafael (C) 6. Soares C. 22. Ruan Tressoldi 28. Franco A. 13. Diaz E. 25. Alisson 20. Marcos Antonio 32. Ferraresi N. 47. Matheus Alves 11. Ferreira 17. Andre Silva
Substitutes
28. Aguirre G. 29. Arias B. 9. Barcos H. 1. Campos A. (G) 51. Cari P. 11. D'Arrigo J. 37. Delgado J. 44. Gomez C. 13. Lagos R. 24. Soyer B. 16. Succar M. 35. Velasquez J.	21. Bobadilla D. 43. Felipe Negrucci 93. Jandrei (G) 48. Lucas Ferreira 7. Lucas Moura 10. Luciano 29. Pablo Maia 5. Robert Arboleda 15. Rodriguinho 49. Ryan Francisco 35. Sabino 18. Wendell
Coaches
Gorosito N.	Zubeldia L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
35', 0 - 1, Andre Silva ⚽, Matheus Alves (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Lavandeira Hernandez P. ↓, Cari P. ↑,
56', Paolo Guerrero ↓, Barcos H. ↑,
61', Matheus Alves ↓, Lucas Moura ↑,
69', Garces R. 🟥,
72', Soares C. ↓, Lucas Ferreira ↑,
78', Castillo J. 🟨,
81', Franco A. 🟨,
82', Ferreira ↓, Luciano ↑,
82', Marcos Antonio ↓, Bobadilla D. ↑,
83', Quevedo K. ↓, Delgado J. ↑,
83', Castillo J. ↓, Lagos R. ↑,
89', 0 - 2, Andre Silva ⚽, Luciano (A),
90+4', Ferraresi N. 🟨,
90+4', Trauco M. 🟨,

Preview

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Alianza Lima may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

São Paulo is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Alianza Lima: Archimbaud J. (Injury) Cantero A. (Muscle Injury) Enrique G. (Yellow Cards) Zambrano C. (Red Card)

There will not play in São Paulo: Henrique Carmo (Inactive) Igor Vinicius (Injury) Jonathan Calleri (Knee Injury) Luiz Gustavo (Contusion) Oscar (Hamstring Injury) Pablo Maia (Ankle Injury) Robert Arboleda (Muscle Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Alianza Lima won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alianza Lima
Peruvian Liga 1
02.05.25	Alianza Lima - Cienciano	0:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
22.04.25	Alianza Lima - Talleres de Córdoba	3:2 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
18.04.25	Alianza Lima - Los Chankas	1:0 ✺
14.04.25	Deportivo Garcilaso - Alianza Lima	0:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
10.04.25	São Paulo - Alianza Lima	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 LWWWT
- São Paulo FC
Brazilian Serie A
02.05.25	São Paulo - Fortaleza	0:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
29.04.25	São Paulo - Náutico Capibaribe	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
26.04.25	Ceará - São Paulo	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
23.04.25	Libertad Asuncion - São Paulo	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
20.04.25	São Paulo - Santos	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 TWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
10.04.25	São Paulo - Alianza Lima	2:2

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