Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 3

Date: 23 April 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Tigo La Huerta (Asunción)

Referee: Garay C. (Chi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium
Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Brazil	Disney+, ESPN, Rede Globo
Canada	beIN Connect
Georgia	Silk Sport 3
Indonesia	Mola TV
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
Russia	Okko Sport
South-america	ESPN 7 Latin America, ESPN7 South
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network, Tubi TV
Venezuela	Inter
World	Disney+


	Libertad Asuncion		São Paulo

	1	X	2
	2.9	2.75	2.8	Watch
	2.65	2.87	2.85
	2.88	2.75	2.85	Watch
	3	2.85	2.87
	2.89	2.88	2.8	Watch
	2.9	2.8	2.5	Watch
	2.94	2.78	2.84	Watch
	2.88	2.75	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.88 ↓ (3.08)	2.8 ↓ (2.88)	2.8 ↑ (2.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Libertad Asuncion
32.7%

Draw
33.6%

São Paulo
33.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.7%

32.9%

36.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.6%

33%

36.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Libertad Asuncion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Libertad Asuncion than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	66.7%	11.1%

Libertad Asuncion - São Paulo Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Libertad will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). São Paulo will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. São Paulo (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - São Paulo (2.28) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Libertad (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Libertad (votes: 1 - 20%). São Paulo (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Morinigo Acosta R. M. (G) 3. Caceres M. 5. Viera D. 7. Cardozo O. 4. Gimenez N. 28. Fernandez M. 6. Campuzano A. 10. Melgarejo L. 26. Caballero H. 18. Franco I. 17. Espinoza M.	23. Rafael (G) 6. Soares C. 22. Ruan Tressoldi 28. Franco A. 32. Ferraresi N. 25. Alisson 20. Marcos Antonio 18. Wendell 47. Matheus Alves 11. Ferreira 17. Andre Silva
Substitutes
11. Aguilar G. 20. Alcaraz A. 15. Cardozo Lucena A. 14. Fretes A. 33. Guinazu L. 31. Gutierrez T. 27. Jacquet M. 2. Ramirez I. 1. Silva M. (G) 35. Troche A. 23. Villalba P. 32. Villalba R.	21. Bobadilla D. 13. Diaz E. 43. Felipe Negrucci 2. Igor Vinicius 93. Jandrei (G) 48. Lucas Ferreira 45. Lucca Marques 10. Luciano 36. Patryck 15. Rodriguinho 49. Ryan Francisco 35. Sabino
Coaches
Aquino S.	Zubeldia L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
37', Melgarejo L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Soares C. ↓, Lucas Ferreira ↑,
49', Marcos Antonio 🟨,
56', Cardozo O. ↓, Aguilar G. ↑,
56', Fernandez M. ↓, Alcaraz A. ↑,
61', Marcos Antonio ↓, Bobadilla D. ↑,
61', Matheus Alves ↓, Luciano ↑,
62', 0 - 1, Lucas Ferreira ⚽, Andre Silva (A),
69', Andre Silva 🟨,
70', Melgarejo L. (Pen),
71', Franco I. ↓, Fretes A. ↑,
77', Wendell ↓, Diaz E. ↑,
83', 0 - 2, Andre Silva ⚽, Ferraresi N. (A),
88', Ferreira ↓, Sabino ↑,
90+1', Caballero H. 🟨,

Preview

Libertad is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches São Paulo is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

São Paulo could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Libertad have a series of home games.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in São Paulo: Jonathan Calleri (Knee Injury) Lucas Moura (Knee Injury) Luiz Gustavo (Contusion) Oscar (Hamstring Injury) Pablo Maia (Ankle Injury) Young (Foot Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Libertad Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
19.04.25	Libertad Asuncion - Guaraní Asuncion	1:3 ✺
14.04.25	Deportivo Recoleta - Libertad Asuncion	1:1 ✺
11.04.25	Libertad Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
08.04.25	Libertad Asuncion - Talleres de Córdoba	2:0 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
05.04.25	Libertad Asuncion - Cerro Porteño	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 LTWWW
- São Paulo FC
Brazilian Serie A
20.04.25	São Paulo - Santos	2:1 ✺
16.04.25	Botafogo RJ - São Paulo	2:2 ✺
13.04.25	São Paulo - Cruzeiro	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
10.04.25	São Paulo - Alianza Lima	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
06.04.25	Atlético Mineiro - São Paulo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WTTTT

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