Match Info

Liga 1 - Apertura - Round 7

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega (Cusco)

Referee: Ureta D. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Peru	Liga 1 Play, Movistar Deportes, Movistar TV App


	Deportivo Garcilaso		Alianza Lima

	1	X	2
	2.7	3	2.7	Watch
	2.75	2.8	2.8	Watch
	2.74	2.91	2.86
	2.92	2.88	2.67	Watch
	2.7	2.8	2.75
	2.86	3.02	2.58	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.78 ↓ (3.05)	2.9 ↓ (3.06)	2.73 ↑ (2.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Garcilaso
33.6%

Draw
32.2%

Alianza Lima
34.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.3%

30.2%

39.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.8%

29.7%

40.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Garcilaso has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Alianza Lima has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alianza Lima might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Garcilaso than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Lima than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alianza Lima could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	55.6%	11.1%

Deportivo Garcilaso - Alianza Lima Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Deportivo Garcilaso will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Alianza Lima will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 55.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 4 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Alianza Lima (2.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Deportivo Garcilaso (1.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Deportivo Garcilaso (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Alianza Lima (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Zubczuk P. (C) 55. Canales E. 19. Gomez A. 13. Benincasa H. 16. Nunez O. 8. Gonzalez A. 7. Sinisterra J. 10. Sandoval K. 18. Ramos Rodriguez C. I. 30. Da Silva B. 29. Graneros A.	1. Duarte A. (G) 17. Advincula L. 6. Garces R. 3. Antoni M. 13. Huaman M. 8. Castillo E. 15. Castillo J. 5. Pavez E. 20. Velez J. 34. Paolo Guerrero (C) 27. Quevedo K.
Substitutes
11. Arancibia F. 31. Barbieri J. (G) 6. Garrafa Tapia I. A. 23. Moreno X. 24. Olivares C. 22. Portales J. 17. Ramirez S. 9. Rodriguez P. 2. Salazar A.	18. Burlamaqui A. 11. Cantero A. 31. Carbajal C. 4. Chavez G. 12. De la Cruz A. (G) 7. Gaibor F. 25. Gentile G. 99. Girotti F. 9. Ramos L.
Coaches
Greppo L.	Guede P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
25', Canales E. 🟨,
29', Canales E. 🟨,
33', Sinisterra J. ↓, Salazar A. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
56', Castillo E. ↓, Cantero A. ↑,
58', Salazar A. 🟨,
59', Garces R. 🟨,
61', 1 - 0, Salazar A. ⚽, Da Silva B. (A),
65', Castillo J. ↓, Gaibor F. ↑,
65', Quevedo K. ↓, Gentile G. ↑,
70', Da Silva B. ↓, Arancibia F. ↑,
70', Graneros A. ↓, Portales J. ↑,
74', Gaibor F. ↓, Ramos L. ↑,
74', Garces R. ↓, Carbajal C. ↑,
78', Gonzalez A. 🟨,
81', 1 - 1, Gomez A. (Own goal),

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 14 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga 1 (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Garcilaso won 1.

Deportivo Garcilaso has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Alianza Lima is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Deportivo Garcilaso: Ascues A. (Injury)

There will not play in Alianza Lima: Archimbaud J. (Knee Injury) Viscarra G. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Garcilaso won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 9:13. (average 1.5:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Deportivo Garcilaso won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 1:4. (average 0.3:1.3).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Deportivo Garcilaso	11	7	1	3	18:7	11	22
11	Alianza Lima	10	4	4	2	14:10	4	16

Last Results with these Odds

Alianza Lima - the odds 2.35 are the expected chance of winning is 39.46%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Garcilaso
Peruvian Liga 1
07.03.26	Cusco - Deportivo Garcilaso	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
03.03.26	Alianza Atlético - Deportivo Garcilaso	2:0 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
27.02.26	Deportivo Garcilaso - Cienciano	2:3 ✺
23.02.26	Moquegua - Deportivo Garcilaso	1:0 ✺
14.02.26	Deportivo Garcilaso - ADT Tarma	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LLLLW
- Alianza Lima
Peruvian Liga 1
09.03.26	Alianza Lima - FBC Melgar	3:1 ✺
28.02.26	Cajamarca - Alianza Lima	0:1 ✺
20.02.26	Alianza Lima - Sport Boys	1:0 ✺
14.02.26	Alianza Atlético - Alianza Lima	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
11.02.26	Alianza Lima - 2 de Mayo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
13.09.25	Alianza Lima - Deportivo Garcilaso	3:4
14.04.25	Deportivo Garcilaso - Alianza Lima	0:1
26.10.24	Deportivo Garcilaso - Alianza Lima	1:2
19.05.24	Alianza Lima - Deportivo Garcilaso	3:2
29.10.23	Deportivo Garcilaso - Alianza Lima	0:1
10.06.23	Alianza Lima - Deportivo Garcilaso	3:2

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