Match Info

Championship - Relegation - Final

Date: 13 May 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Recreation Park (Alloa) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Graham C. (Sco)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
United Kingdom	19:45	BBC Alba, BBC iPlayer, BBC Sport


	Alloa Athletic		Stenhousemuir

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.3	2.75
	2.42	3.4	2.68	Watch
	2.58	3.4	2.76
	2.62	2.95	2.87	Watch
	2.5	3.2	2.63
	2.49	3.2	2.52	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.52 ↓ (2.65)	3.24 ↑ (3.11)	2.7 ↑ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alloa Athletic
36.9%

Draw
28.7%

Stenhousemuir
34.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

35.1%

29.9%

35.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.2%

30%

35%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alloa Athletic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Stenhousemuir has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alloa Athletic than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stenhousemuir than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	60%	20%

Alloa Athletic - Stenhousemuir Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Alloa will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Stenhousemuir will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. McFarlane L. (G) 24. Foster O. 6. Dewar C. 2. Taggart S. (C) 20. O'Donnell C. 12. Scougall S. 4. Hetherington S. 28. Adamson C. 27. Stewart L. 9. Donnelly L. 29. Burnside C.	1. Jamieson D. (G) 21. Ewen K. 2. Meechan R. 4. Buchanan G. (C) 14. Bilham K. 24. Grant L. 11. Taylor R. 17. Anderson M. 23. McGill S. 22. Whyte O. 9. Aitken M.
Substitutes
19. Buchanan S. 7. Clarke A. 5. Graham A. 15. McKay D. 1. Ogayi T. (G) 11. Orsi K. 10. Rankin L. 18. Sammon C. 3. Waters C.	12. Cameron Z. 15. Carrick D. 10. Gray F. 34. Lyle C. (G) 8. Robson F. 3. Simpson O.
Coaches
Graham A.	Naysmith G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
15', 0 - 1, Taylor R. ⚽,
30', 0 - 2, Aitken M. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
57', Taylor R. 🟨,
68', Meechan R. 🟨,
69', 0 - 3, Anderson M. ⚽,
70', Aitken M. ↓, Carrick D. ↑,
70', Taylor R. ↓, Cameron Z. ↑,
71', Donnelly L. ↓, Waters C. ↑,
71', O'Donnell C. ↓, Orsi K. ↑,
71', Scougall S. ↓, Rankin L. ↑,
76', Burnside C. ↓, Sammon C. ↑,
78', Whyte O. 🟨,
86', Whyte O. ↓, Robson F. ↑,
90+2', McGill S. ↓, Simpson O. ↑,
90+3', Dewar C. 🟨,
90+5', 1 - 3, Waters C. ⚽,

Preview

First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alloa won 2.

Alloa has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Stenhousemuir is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Alloa won 10 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 30:16. (average 2:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Alloa won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:7. (average 1.7:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Stenhousemuir	12	7	2	3	13:9	4	23

Outrights of Scottish Football Championship for now

Stenhousemuir: 11.64%

Last Results with these Odds

Alloa Athletic - the odds 2.65 are the expected chance of winning is 35.06%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alloa Athletic
Scottish Football Championship
09.05.26	Airdrieonians - Alloa Athletic	1:2 ✺
05.05.26	Alloa Athletic - Airdrieonians	1:0 ✺
Scottish League One
02.05.26	Alloa Athletic - Queen of the South	1:4 ✺
25.04.26	Stenhousemuir - Alloa Athletic	1:0 ✺
18.04.26	Alloa Athletic - East Fife	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 WWLLW
- Stenhousemuir
Scottish Football Championship
09.05.26	Stenhousemuir - Queen of the South	3:2 penalties ✺
05.05.26	Queen of the South - Stenhousemuir	1:1 ✺
Scottish League One
02.05.26	Montrose - Stenhousemuir	0:2 ✺
25.04.26	Stenhousemuir - Alloa Athletic	1:0 ✺
18.04.26	Cove Rangers - Stenhousemuir	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Scottish League One
25.04.26	Stenhousemuir - Alloa Athletic	1:0
27.12.25	Alloa Athletic - Stenhousemuir	0:0
25.10.25	Alloa Athletic - Stenhousemuir	0:0
02.08.25	Stenhousemuir - Alloa Athletic	1:2
05.04.25	Stenhousemuir - Alloa Athletic	1:4
28.12.24	Alloa Athletic - Stenhousemuir	1:3
19.10.24	Stenhousemuir - Alloa Athletic	0:1

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