Match Info

SPAIN: LALIGA - ROUND 26

Date: 24 February 2024, Saturday

Location: Power Horse Stadium (Almería)

Referee: Rojas J. A. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	Optus Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Brazil	ESPN
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Croatia	Arena Sport
Cyprus	PrimeTel
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3
Denmark	TV2 Sport X
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Urheilu
France	beIN Sports
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 2
Portugal	Eleven Sports 2
Serbia	Arena Sport
Slovenia	Arena Sport
Sweden	TV4
United-kingdom	Viaplay
World	Setanta Sports Eurasia


	Almería		Atlético Madrid

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.8	1.73	Watch
	4.6	3.8	1.72
	4.5	4	1.78	Watch
	4.65	3.95	1.76
	4.93	3.87	1.76
	4.33	3.8	1.73
	4.88	4.11	1.77	Watch
	4.55	3.85	1.76
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.65 ↑ (4.34)	3.9 ↓ (3.94)	1.75 ↓ (1.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Almería
20.6%

Draw
24.6%

Atlético Madrid
54.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.9%

24.1%

54%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.5%

23.7%

54.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Almería has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Atlético Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Almería than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Madrid than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
4.9%	9.8%	85.4%

Almería - Atlético Madrid Predictions

Users Predictions: Atlético Madrid will win (70 of 82 users predict this - 85.37%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.72% – 93.02%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Maximiano L. (G) 18. Pubill M. 3. Gonzalez E. 16. Radovanovic A. 24. Langa B. 5. Robertone L. (C) 4. Baba I. 38. Romero L. 8. Viera J. 10. Embarba A. 15. Lozano C.	13. Oblak J. (G) 15. Savic S. 4. Gabriel Paulista 23. Reinildo 16. Molina N. 6. Koke (C) 5. de Paul R. 24. Barrios P. 12. Lino S. 10. Correa A. 9. Depay M.
Substitutes
19. Arribas S. 20. Centelles A. 21. Chumi 12. Leo Baptistao 6. Lopy D. 1. Marino D. (G) 13. Martinez F. (G) 11. Melero G. 29. Milovanovic M. 22. Montes C. 17. Pozo A. 7. Ramazani L.	31. Gomis A. (G) 22. Hermoso M. 14. Llorente M. 1. Moldovan H. (G) 19. Morata A. 8. Niguez S. 17. Riquelme R. 18. Vermeeren A. 20. Witsel A.
Coaches
Garitano G.	Simeone D.

Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ LaLiga2 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Group Stage: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Almería won 0.

Both teams are in bad shape now.

Almería could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Atlético is a favorite.

There will not play in Almería: Kone I. (Ankle Injury) Suarez L. (Foot Injury)

There will not play in Atlético: Azpilicueta C. (Knee Injury) Gimenez J. M. (Muscle Injury) Griezmann A. (Ankle Injury) Lemar T. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Vitolo (Knee Injury)

Last 7 head-to-head matches Almería won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 7-13.

Including matches at home between the teams Almería won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Almería
Spanish LaLiga
18.02.24	Granada - Almería	1:1 ✺
12.02.24	Almería - Athletic Bilbao	0:0 ✺
03.02.24	Valencia - Almería	2:1 ✺
26.01.24	Almería - Deportivo Alavés	0:3 ✺
21.01.24	Real Madrid - Almería	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 TTLLL
- Atlético Madrid
UEFA Champions League
20.02.24	Inter Milan - Atlético Madrid	1:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
17.02.24	Atlético Madrid - Las Palmas	5:0 ✺
11.02.24	Sevilla - Atlético Madrid	1:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
07.02.24	Atlético Madrid - Athletic Bilbao	0:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
04.02.24	Real Madrid - Atlético Madrid	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
10.12.23	Atlético Madrid - Almería	2:1
16.04.23	Atlético Madrid - Almería	2:1
15.01.23	Almería - Atlético Madrid	1:1
21.02.15	Atlético Madrid - Almería	3:0
24.09.14	Almería - Atlético Madrid	0:1
08.02.14	Almería - Atlético Madrid	2:0
14.09.13	Atlético Madrid - Almería	4:2

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