Match Info

LaLiga - Round 29

Date: 22 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu (Madrid)

Referee: Munuera J. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 4, CANAL+ Sport 2, DStv Now, New World Sport 3, New World Sport 5, Startimes Am'mobi, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport Maximo 3
Albania	SuperSport 2
Andorra	beIN Sports 1
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA English 1, beIN Sports MENA French 1, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria	DAZN 2, DAZN
Azerbaijan	Idman TV, Setanta Sports 2
Bangladesh	Begin
Belarus	Belarus 5
Bolivia	ESPN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 3
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	TSN+
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cuba	Tele Rebelde
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport
Ecuador	ESPN
Europe	Go3 Sport 1 Baltic, Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Free
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2, Silk Universal
Germany	DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports 1
Haiti	Canal+ Sport 1
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Sports 2
Hungary	Spiler2 TV, TV2 Play Premium
India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, SCTV, Vidio
Italy	20 Mediaset, 214 DAZN Zona, DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan, U-NEXT
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports 2
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2, ART Sport 3
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 2
Laos	beIN Connect
Macao	Macau Cable TV 35 Sports
Madagascar	UpTV
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Maldives	ICE Xtra, Medianet
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Moldova	Setanta Sports 2
Mozambique	Startimes Mania
Netherlands	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	SuperSport LaLiga, Supersport Maximo 1
North-central-america	RUSH Sports 1 Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
North-macedonia	TDM Desporto
Norway	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport Premium, Viaplay
Paraguay	ESPN
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Poland	CANAL+ Sport
Portugal	DAZN 1, DAZN / App, DAZN Portugal
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 1, Prima TV
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 2, Match TV, Okko Sport, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Singapore	beIN Sport 1
Slovakia	Nova Sport 4, Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
South-africa	SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga, Supersport Maximo 1
Spain	LaLiga TV Bar, M+ LaLiga
Suriname	QN Sports
Sweden	TV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
Switzerland	Blue Sport D1, Blue Sport D1
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 2, Varzish Sport
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	DAZN Espanol, ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+, Fubo Sports Network
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 2, Zor TV
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	SCTV 22, SCTV Online


	Real Madrid		Atlético Madrid

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.9	3.5	Watch
	1.85	3.9	3.8
	2.02	3.7	3.45	Watch
	2.06	3.95	3.69
	1.88	4.06	3.79
	1.91	3.7	3.5
	1.99	3.97	3.85	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↑ (1.9)	3.88 ↓ (3.95)	3.65 ↑ (3.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Madrid
49.1%

Draw
24.7%

Atlético Madrid
26.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.8%

24%

26.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.6%

25.3%

24.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Atlético Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Madrid than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
73.3%	18.7%	8%

Real Madrid - Atlético Madrid Predictions

Users Predictions: 73 users predict this event. Real will win (votes: 53 - 72.6%). Atlético will win (votes: 6 - 8.2%). It will Tie (votes: 14 - 19.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Real: 62.4% – 82.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Real (2.04) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Atlético (1.38) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Real Madrid will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Real (votes: 8 - 88.9%). Atlético (votes: 1 - 11.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Lunin A. (G) 2. Carvajal D. (C) 22. Rudiger A. 24. Huijsen D. 20. Garcia F. 8. Valverde F. 45. Pitarch T. 14. Tchouameni A. 15. Guler A. 21. Diaz B. 7. Vinicius Junior	1. Musso J. (G) 14. Llorente M. 17. Hancko D. 24. Le Normand R. 3. Ruggeri M. 20. Simeone G. 6. Koke (C) 5. Cardoso J. 22. Lookman A. 7. Griezmann A. 19. Alvarez J.
Substitutes
27. Aguado D. 4. Alaba D. 12. Alexander-Arnold T. 5. Bellingham J. 6. Camavinga E. 18. Carreras A. 26. Fran (G) 16. Garcia G. 30. Mastantuono F. 10. Mbappe K. 43. Mestre S. (G) 37. Moran M. A.	11. Almada T. 10. Baena A. 33. de Luis M. (G) 34. Diaz J. 31. Esquivel S. (G) 2. Gimenez J. M. 23. Gonzalez N. 15. Lenglet C. 16. Molina N. 9. Sorloth A. 21. Vargas O.
Coaches
Arbeloa A.	Simeone D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
27', Cardoso J. 🟨,
33', 0 - 1, Lookman A. ⚽, Simeone G. (A),
36', Ruggeri M. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Le Normand R. ↓, Gimenez J. M. ↑,
52', 1 - 1, Vinicius Junior (Penalty Awarded),
55', 2 - 1, Valverde F. ⚽,
57', Griezmann A. ↓, Sorloth A. ↑,
57', Cardoso J. ↓, Gonzalez N. ↑,
57', Lookman A. ↓, Molina N. ↑,
61', Hancko D. 🟨,
63', Pitarch T. 🟨,
64', Pitarch T. ↓, Mbappe K. ↑,
64', Carvajal D. ↓, Alexander-Arnold T. ↑,
66', 2 - 2, Molina N. ⚽, Alvarez J. (A),
68', Llorente M. 🟨,
71', Simeone G. ↓, Baena A. ↑,
72', 3 - 2, Vinicius Junior ⚽, Alexander-Arnold T. (A),
74', Guler A. ↓, Bellingham J. ↑,
74', Diaz B. ↓, Camavinga E. ↑,
77', Valverde F. 🟥,
87', Vinicius Junior ↓, Carreras A. ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real won 3.

Real is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Atlético's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Real is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Real: Ceballos D. (Muscle Injury) Courtois T. (Thigh Injury) Eder Militao (Hamstring Injury) Mendy F. (Hamstring Injury) Rodrygo (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Atlético: Barrios P. (Muscle Injury) Mendoza R. (Injury) Oblak J. (Muscle Injury) Pubill M. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Real won 10 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 31:26. (average 1.6:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Real won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 19:8. (average 1.9:0.8).

Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now

Real Madrid: 21.59% Atl. Madrid: 3.49%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Atl. Madrid	7	5	1	1	16:7	9	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	18:8	10	15

Last Results with these Odds

Real Madrid - the odds 1.9 are the expected chance of winning is 49.76%, but this team recently wins 70% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Madrid
UEFA Champions League
17.03.26	Manchester City - Real Madrid	1:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
14.03.26	Real Madrid - Elche	4:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
11.03.26	Real Madrid - Manchester City	3:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
06.03.26	Celta de Vigo - Real Madrid	1:2 ✺
02.03.26	Real Madrid - Getafe	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.2 WWWWL
- Atlético Madrid
UEFA Champions League
18.03.26	Tottenham Hotspur - Atlético Madrid	3:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
14.03.26	Atlético Madrid - Getafe	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
10.03.26	Atlético Madrid - Tottenham Hotspur	5:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
07.03.26	Atlético Madrid - Real Sociedad	3:2 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
03.03.26	Barcelona - Atlético Madrid	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Supercopa
08.01.26	Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid	1:2
Spanish LaLiga
27.09.25	Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid	5:2
UEFA Champions League
12.03.25	Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid	1:1 penalties
04.03.25	Real Madrid - Atlético Madrid	2:1
Spanish LaLiga
08.02.25	Real Madrid - Atlético Madrid	1:1
29.09.24	Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid	1:1
04.02.24	Real Madrid - Atlético Madrid	1:1

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