Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 4 - Round 18

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, RFAF


	Almeria B		Xerez CD

	1	X	2
	3.1	2.78	2.32
	3.26	2.62	2.51	Watch
	3.6	2.75	2.1
	3.17	2.75	2.38
	3.33	2.66	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.29 ↓ (3.29)	2.71 ↓ (2.87)	2.34 ↑ (2.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.50

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Almeria B
27.6%

Draw
33.5%

Xerez CD
38.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.5%

31.5%

41%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.7%

30.5%

42.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Almeria B has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Xerez CD has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Almeria B than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Xerez CD than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Almeria B - Xerez CD Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
2', 1 - 0, Kounia H. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
90+1', 1 - 1, Lopez J. ⚽,
90+4', 1 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Segunda RFEF ~ Promotion Play Offs).

Almeria B is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Xerez has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Almeria B may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Almeria B won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:1. (average 0.3:0.3).

Including home match between the teams, Almeria B won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Xerez CD	5	1	2	2	3:4	-1	5

Last Results with these Odds

Almeria B - the odds 3.29 are the expected chance of winning is 27.49%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Almeria B
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
04.01.26	Lorca Deportiva - Almeria B	1:0 ✺
20.12.25	Estepona - Almeria B	1:1 ✺
14.12.25	Almeria B - Melilla	1:1 ✺
07.12.25	Puente Genil - Almeria B	1:0 ✺
30.11.25	Almeria B - Antoniano	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LTTLT
- Xerez CD
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
03.01.26	Xerez CD - Xerez Deportivo	1:0 ✺
20.12.25	CD Extremadura - Xerez CD	1:0 ✺
14.12.25	Xerez CD - Atlético Malagueño	1:0 ✺
06.12.25	UCAM Murcia - Xerez CD	2:0 ✺
30.11.25	Xerez CD - Real Jaén	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
12.10.25	Xerez CD - Almeria B	1:0
02.03.25	Xerez CD - Almeria B	0:0
20.10.24	Almeria B - Xerez CD	1:0

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