Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 4 - Round 15

Date: 14 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Chapín (Jerez)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub


	Xerez CD		Atlético Malagueño

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.1	4.95
	1.71	3.28	5.44
	1.69	3.29	5.22	Watch
	1.73	3	5
	1.72	3.13	5.05
	1.71	3.14	5.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↑ (1.56)	3.16 ↓ (3.5)	5.17 ↓ (5.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Xerez CD
53.4%

Draw
28.9%

Atlético Malagueño
17.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.1%

25.9%

16%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.3%

24.5%

15.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Xerez CD has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Atlético Malagueño has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Xerez CD than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Xerez CD, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Malagueño than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Xerez CD - Atlético Malagueño Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
22', 1 - 0, Castillo M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Segunda RFEF ~ Promotion Play Offs and 18 in the zone Relegation).

Xerez has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Malagueño is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Xerez is considered a favorite.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Xerez CD
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
06.12.25	UCAM Murcia - Xerez CD	2:0 ✺
30.11.25	Xerez CD - Real Jaén	1:0 ✺
23.11.25	Yeclano Deportivo - Xerez CD	1:3 ✺
16.11.25	Xerez CD - Lorca Deportiva	0:1 ✺
09.11.25	La Unión - Xerez CD	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 LWWLW
- Atlético Malagueño
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
06.12.25	Atlético Malagueño - Minera	0:2 ✺
30.11.25	Lorca Deportiva - Atlético Malagueño	2:1 ✺
22.11.25	Atlético Malagueño - La Unión	1:3 ✺
16.11.25	Linares Deportivo - Atlético Malagueño	1:1 ✺
09.11.25	Atlético Malagueño - UCAM Murcia	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 LLLTW

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