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Current Win Probability
Almirante Brown 42.6%
Draw 33.1%
Brown de Adrogué 24.3%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
38%
32.9%
29%
Our Initial ML Estimation
35.2%
30.5%
31.3%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Almirante Brown has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)
Brown de Adrogué has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Almirante Brown than the current prediction. (-7.4%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Almirante Brown that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brown de Adrogué than the current prediction. (+7%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Brown de Adrogué could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
50%
50%
0%
Almirante Brown - Brown de Adrogué Predictions
Users Predictions:
16 users predict this event. Almirante Brown will win (votes: 8 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 50%). Confidence interval (95%) for Almirante Brown: 25.5% – 74.5%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Martinez R. (G) 4. Abreliano M. 2. Mino F. 6. Rodriguez F. 3. Ochoa A. 8. Garcia F. 5. Villarruel L. 7. Stable F. 10. Piteo M. A. 9. Bonacci P. 11. Almada T.
1. Aguero F. (G) 4. Luque M. 2. Aguirre C. 6. Herranz N. 3. Gamarra G. 8. Nouet M. 5. Pereyra N. 7. Lovazzano L. 10. Benitez F. 9. Pulicastro F. 11. Castillo L.
Substitutes
12. Ferreyra N. (G) 15. Guzman L. 18. Iglesias L. 19. Leguizamon L. 17. Maidana A. 13. Olivarez S. 14. Quiroz L. 20. Rivero G. 16. Vella L.
20. Buter L. 19. Lopez B. 13. Masuero A. 16. Modon S. 17. Nouet F. 14. Patrizio T. 12. Peralta A. (G) 15. Sangiovani R. 18. Sproat M.
Coaches
Alonso R.
Vico P.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
6', Gamarra G. 🟨,
16', Pereyra N. 🟨,
25', 0 - 1, Nouet M. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Almada T. ↓, Iglesias L. ↑,
46', Abreliano M. ↓, Guzman L. ↑,
47', Iglesias L. 🟨,
49', Rodriguez F. 🟨,
50', 0 - 2, Nouet M. (Pen),
51', Gamarra G. 🟨,
52', 1 - 2, Bonacci P. (Pen),
55', Castillo L. ↓, Sangiovani R. ↑,
60', Villarruel L. ↓, Maidana A. ↑,
60', Garcia F. ↓, Rivero G. ↑,
68', Piteo M. A. ↓, Vella L. ↑,
70', Pulicastro F. ↓, Buter L. ↑,
77', Pereyra N. ↓, Nouet F. ↑,
77', Nouet M. ↓, Patrizio T. ↑,
77', Benitez F. ↓, Modon S. ↑,
90+1', Lovazzano L. 🟨,
Preview
This time only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 18 in the zone Primera Nacional (Relegation ~ Play Offs: ) and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Primera B (Apertura: )).
Last 5 head-to-head matches Almirante Brown won 3.
The competitors look crappy now.
Brown de Adrogué could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
Almirante Brown will have a poor advantage in this game.
Last 6 head-to-head matches Almirante Brown won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7-7.
Including matches at home between the teams Almirante Brown won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-3.
Watch
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Martinez R. (G) 
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