Match Info

Taça de Portugal - 1/16-finals

Date: 22 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Municipal Stadium Alpendorada (Alpendorada)


	Alpendorada		Casa Pia

	1	X	2
	4.33	3.9	1.67
	4.45	3.7	1.68
	3.96	3.70	1.79	Watch
	4.43	3.86	1.7
	4.25	4	1.68
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.28 ↑ (4.25)	3.83 ↓ (3.92)	1.7 ↑ (1.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alpendorada
21.6%

Draw
24.1%

Casa Pia
54.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.6%

23.4%

55.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.4%

20.7%

48.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Alpendorada have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Casa Pia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alpendorada than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Casa Pia than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Casa Pia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Alpendorada - Casa Pia Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Alpendorada will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Casa Pia will win (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Morais R. (G) 47. Borges M. 12. Fabio Rodrigo 9. Fonseca H. 7. Ismael 2. Meireles H. 16. Melhor S. 45. Pauleta 23. Pepe 8. Tavares B. 3. Zuzarte G.	33. Batista R. (G) 90. Cassiano 5. Conte A. 6. Fonte J. (C) 18. Geraldes A. 4. Goulart J. 14. Miguel Sousa 74. Nhaga R. 42. Perez S. 17. Severina X. 43. Sousa D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
45', 0 - 1, Conte A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
58', Geraldes A. 🟨,
60', Conte A. ↓, Prieto K. ↑,
60', Severina X. ↓, Livolant J. ↑,
67', Prieto K. 🟨,
72', Miguel Sousa ↓, Morais T. ↑,
72', Cassiano ↓, Rocha Livramento D. ↑,
79', Ismael ↓, Jony ↑,
81', 0 - 2, Perez S. ⚽,
89', 🟨,
90+1', 0 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

Alpendorada is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Casa Pia is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Casa Pia is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Alpendorada will win today's game, with odds of 4.3.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Alpendorada
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
09.11.25	Gouveia - Alpendorada	0:3 ✺
02.11.25	Alpendorada - União Lamas	2:1 ✺
26.10.25	Vila Meã - Alpendorada	0:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
18.10.25	Alpendorada - Estrela da Amadora	3:1 ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
04.10.25	Cinfães - Alpendorada	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.8 WWTWT
- Casa Pia
Liga Portugal
09.11.25	Benfica - Casa Pia	2:2 ✺
01.11.25	Casa Pia - Estrela da Amadora	3:5 ✺
26.10.25	Braga - Casa Pia	4:0 ✺
03.10.25	Casa Pia - Estoril Praia	2:2 ✺
27.09.25	Moreirense - Casa Pia	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 TLLTL

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