Match Info

Premier League - Round 25

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Žetisu Stadion (Taldykorgan)

Referee: Kuchma A. (Kaz)


	Zhetysu		Ertis Pavlodar

	1	X	2
	2.60	3.10	2.40
	2.65	3.15	2.28	Watch
	2.93	3.30	2.56
	2.56	3.11	2.67	Watch
	2.80	2.70	2.55
	2.83	3.24	2.46	Watch
	2.65	3.00	2.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.72 (2.72)	3.09 ↓ (3.32)	2.48 ↑ (2.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 7.75

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Zhetysu
33.6%

Draw
29.6%

Ertis Pavlodar
36.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.8%

27.7%

38.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.4%

27.3%

39%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Zhetysu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Ertis Pavlodar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Zhetysu than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ertis Pavlodar than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Zhetysu - Ertis Pavlodar Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Ertis (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ertis (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
88. Sicaci S. (G) 5. Orynbassar R. 15. Pajovic J. 3. Luna D. 11. Dobay A. 10. Mosiashvili T. 7. Muzhikov S. (C) 23. Baltabekov A. 21. Zhakipbayev M. 27. Zivanovic M. 18. Shvyrev V.	1. Rikhard M. (G) 17. Opeh S. 4. Slambekov D. 25. Jevtic M. 66. Malikaydar S. 35. Ramos L. 24. Khalmatov M. 12. Karimov R. 97. Poe J. (C) 9. Leonardo Kalil 98. Sultaniyazov Z.
Substitutes
9. Abzalov S. 31. Akhmetov A. 20. Anuarbek S. 2. Aslan R. 1. Egorov A. (G) 90. Jovanovic S. 17. Nurbol N. 22. Podymskiy D. (G)	13. Baybosynov N. 32. Falaye O. A. 26. Mbodj M. 7. Mukhametzhanov T. 15. Nyrkov D. 14. Raskatov V. 29. Sarnavskyi B. (G) 6. Shimamura Y. 5. Toleuov B. 56. Yudenkov R.
Coaches
Nurdauletov K.	Shoytymov E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
44', Karimov R. 🟨,
45+5', Muzhikov S. 🟥,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Sultaniyazov Z. ↓, Mukhametzhanov T. ↑,
47', Mosiashvili T. 🟨,
50', Slambekov D. 🟨,
56', Slambekov D. ↓, Shimamura Y. ↑,
61', 1 - 0, Zivanovic M. ⚽, Mosiashvili T. (A),
65', Shvyrev V. 🟨,
67', Shvyrev V. ↓, Abzalov S. ↑,
67', Poe J. ↓, Falaye O. A. ↑,
67', Khalmatov M. ↓, Baybosynov N. ↑,
78', Karimov R. ↓, Yudenkov R. ↑,
86', Zivanovic M. 🟨,
88', Baltabekov A. 🟨,
90+1', Zhakipbayev M. ↓, Jovanovic S. ↑,
90+3', Mukhametzhanov T. 🟨,
90+4', Zivanovic M. ↓, Anuarbek S. ↑,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ First League and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Zhetysu won 5.

Zhetysu has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Ertis has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Ertis is a strong favorite.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Zhetysu won 10 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 24:17. (average 1.3:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Zhetysu won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 14:7. (average 1.6:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Ertis Pavlodar	25	6	8	11	26:34	-8	26
16	Zhetysu Taldykorgan	26	5	7	14	26:44	-18	22

Last Results with these Odds

Ertis Pavlodar - the odds 2.39 are the expected chance of winning is 38.48%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Zhetysu
Kazakh Premier League
29.08.26	Ulytau - Zhetysu	3:0 ✺
15.08.26	Zhenis - Zhetysu	4:1 ✺
08.08.26	Zhetysu - Ordabasy	0:4 ✺
01.08.26	Atyrau - Zhetysu	1:1 ✺
25.07.26	Zhetysu - Kyzylzhar	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLLTL
- Ertis Pavlodar
Kazakh Premier League
30.08.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Aktobe	2:1 ✺
16.08.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Tobol Kostanay	0:2 ✺
09.08.26	Yelimay Semey - Ertis Pavlodar	3:1 ✺
01.08.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Kaspiy Aktau	3:2 ✺
25.07.26	Ulytau - Ertis Pavlodar	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.3 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
18.04.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Zhetysu	1:2
05.10.19	Zhetysu - Ertis Pavlodar	2:1
13.07.19	Zhetysu - Ertis Pavlodar	4:0
01.05.19	Ertis Pavlodar - Zhetysu	0:3
19.08.18	Zhetysu - Ertis Pavlodar	2:0
01.07.18	Ertis Pavlodar - Zhetysu	0:2
22.04.18	Zhetysu - Ertis Pavlodar	2:1

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