Match Info

Premier League - Round 21

Date: 9 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadion Spartak (Semey)

Referee: Chekhovsky G. (Kaz)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Yelimay Semey		Ertis Pavlodar

	1	X	2
	1.70	3.50	4.10
	2.05	3.35	3.3	Watch
	2.02	3.45	3.27
	2.18	3.39	2.99	Watch
	2	3.4	3.2
	1.97	3.52	3.62	Watch
	2	3.25	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↑ (1.84)	3.41 ↓ (3.62)	3.38 ↓ (3.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Yelimay Semey
46.1%

Draw
26.9%

Ertis Pavlodar
27.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

25.4%

24.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.2%

25.5%

24.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Yelimay Semey has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Ertis Pavlodar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Yelimay Semey than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ertis Pavlodar than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Yelimay Semey - Ertis Pavlodar Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Yelimay will win (votes: 6 - 75%). Ertis will win (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Yelimay: 45% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Konovalov I. (G) 26. Tanasijevic S. 3. Higor Gabriel 15. Mittendorfer M. 17. Bakhtiyarov A. 44. Tyulyubay A. 23. Ilic H. 14. Palacio D. 77. Placca F. 9. Soto R. 10. Payruz Z.	29. Sarnavskyi B. (G) 66. Malikaydar S. 26. Mbodj M. 17. Opeh S. 12. Karimov R. 98. Sultaniyazov Z. 35. Ramos L. 8. Esimbekov D. 4. Slambekov D. 32. Falaye O. A. 97. Poe J.
Substitutes
2. Adambayev A. 88. Baigaliyev A. 5. Belancic M. 8. Omatay M. 11. Sviridov I. 1. Tsuprikov E. (G) 19. Zhaksylykov A. 67. Zhilin A.	13. Baybosynov N. 21. Berdibek D. 41. Efremenko D. (G) 40. Kanat A. 9. Leonardo Kalil 7. Mukhametzhanov T. 15. Nyrkov D. 31. Rakhmetulla E. (G) 14. Raskatov V. 6. Shimamura Y. 5. Toleuov B.
Coaches
Karpovich A.	Eslyamov M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
12', Payruz Z. 🟨,
19', Tyulyubay A. 🟨,
23', Poe J. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Falaye O. A. ↓, Mukhametzhanov T. ↑,
61', Soto R. ↓, Sviridov I. ↑,
63', Slambekov D. ↓, Leonardo Kalil ↑,
70', Ilic H. 🟨,
73', 1 - 0, Sviridov I. ⚽, Ilic H. (A),
78', 1 - 1, Mittendorfer M. (Own goal),
80', 2 - 1, Bakhtiyarov A. ⚽, Placca F. (A),
80', Mbodj M. 🟨,
82', Payruz Z. ↓, Zhaksylykov A. ↑,
82', Mbodj M. 🟨,
85', Ramos L. ↓, Toleuov B. ↑,
89', Placca F. ↓, Omatay M. ↑,
89', Bakhtiyarov A. ↓, Baigaliyev A. ↑,
90+2', 3 - 1, Omatay M. ⚽,
90+5', Omatay M. 🟨,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 6 and 15 in the zone Relegation ~ First League).

Yelimay is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Ertis has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Ertis may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Yelimay is considered a favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Yelimay won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Yelimay Semey	25	10	8	7	35:33	2	38
11	Ertis Pavlodar	25	6	8	11	26:34	-8	26

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Yelimay Semey
Kazakh Premier League
02.08.26	Zhenis - Yelimay Semey	0:0 ✺
26.07.26	Yelimay Semey - Kaisar	1:1 ✺
19.07.26	Ordabasy - Yelimay Semey	3:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
16.07.26	Yelimay Semey - Alashkert	2:3 penalties ✺
09.07.26	Alashkert - Yelimay Semey	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 TTLLT
- Ertis Pavlodar
Kazakh Premier League
01.08.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Kaspiy Aktau	3:2 ✺
25.07.26	Ulytau - Ertis Pavlodar	1:2 ✺
11.07.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Zhenis	0:1 ✺
05.07.26	Kaisar - Ertis Pavlodar	0:0 ✺
28.06.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Kaisar	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.4 WWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
16.05.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Yelimay Semey	2:2

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