The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Ertis Pavlodar 42.6%
Draw 26.2%
Okzhetpes 31.2%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
28%
28%
44%
Our Initial ML Estimation
27.7%
27.7%
44.5%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Ertis Pavlodar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.6%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ertis Pavlodar's performance.
Okzhetpes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.8%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Okzhetpes might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ertis Pavlodar than the current prediction. (-14.9%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ertis Pavlodar that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Okzhetpes than the current prediction. (+13.3%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Okzhetpes could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
50%
50%
0%
Ertis Pavlodar - Okzhetpes Predictions
Users Predictions:
4 users predict this event. Ertis will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Rikhard M. (G) 5. Toleuov B. 26. Mbodj M. 4. Slambekov D. 66. Malikaydar S. 6. Shimamura Y. 56. Yudenkov R. (C) 8. Esimbekov D. 12. Karimov R. 9. Leonardo Kalil 7. Mukhametzhanov T.
22. Lobantsev M. (G) 14. Mukanov S. 63. Kuzmichev I. 3. Lototskyi B. 47. Vasiljev V. 11. Zhangylyshbay T. (C) 9. Borodin D. 8. Buribaev N. 91. Abdumannonov B. 19. Omirtaev O. 17. Umarov S.
Substitutes
13. Baybosynov N. 32. Falaye O. A. 25. Jevtic M. 24. Khalmatov M. 77. Nurlan A. 15. Nyrkov D. 17. Opeh S. 97. Poe J. 35. Ramos L. 14. Raskatov V. 29. Sarnavskyi B. (G) 98. Sultaniyazov Z.
67. Atykhanov R. 12. Dovgal A. (G) 20. Ensebaev M. 1. Golubnichiy M. (G) 10. Nurgaliyev E. 16. Shamshi B. 77. Sovpel V. 7. Vomenko V. 2. Zhaksylykov Z. 4. Zyabko V.
Coaches
Shoytymov E.
Alyuetov R.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (2 - 0)
17', 1 - 0, Leonardo Kalil ⚽,
33', 2 - 0, Leonardo Kalil ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Malikaydar S. ↓, Nyrkov D. ↑,
47', Leonardo Kalil (Penalty Awarded),
56', Abdumannonov B. ↓, Sovpel V. ↑,
56', Umarov S. ↓, Vomenko V. ↑,
61', Mukhametzhanov T. ↓, Sultaniyazov Z. ↑,
72', 2 - 1, Omirtaev O. ⚽,
73', Vasiljev V. ↓, Atykhanov R. ↑,
73', Omirtaev O. ↓, Ensebaev M. ↑,
75', Leonardo Kalil ↓, Poe J. ↑,
75', Shimamura Y. ↓, Falaye O. A. ↑,
77', Buribaev N. ↓, Shamshi B. ↑,
90+3', Esimbekov D. ↓, Ramos L. ↑,
90+4', Shamshi B. 🟨,
Preview
Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ First League and 4).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ertis won 2.
In recent matches, Ertis has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Okzhetpes is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
Ertis may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Ertis won 10 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 21:11. (average 1.4:0.7).
Including home matches between the teams, Ertis won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 7:4. (average 1.2:0.7).
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Rikhard M. (G) 
Mbodj M. 
Shimamura Y. 
Yudenkov R. (C) 
Leonardo Kalil 
Lobantsev M. (G) 
Lototskyi B. 
Abdumannonov B. 
Falaye O. A. 
Jevtic M. 
Poe J. 
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