Match Info

Premier League - Round 22

Date: 16 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Centralnyj Stadion (Pavlodar)

Referee: Zatula A. (Kaz)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Ertis Pavlodar		Tobol Kostanay

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.35	3.20	2.60
	2.42	3.3	2.62	Watch
	2.36	3.59	2.61
	2.4	3.63	2.53	Watch
	2.2	3.5	2.5
	2.45	3.57	2.66	Watch
	2.37	3.3	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↓ (2.91)	3.44 ↑ (3.23)	2.58 ↑ (2.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ertis Pavlodar
38.4%

Draw
26.4%

Tobol Kostanay
35.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.8%

28.7%

39.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.4%

28.3%

40%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ertis Pavlodar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ertis Pavlodar's performance.

Tobol Kostanay has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ertis Pavlodar than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ertis Pavlodar that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tobol Kostanay than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

Ertis Pavlodar - Tobol Kostanay Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Sarnavskyi B. (G) 15. Nyrkov D. 56. Yudenkov R. (C) 25. Jevtic M. 17. Opeh S. 35. Ramos L. 6. Shimamura Y. 4. Slambekov D. 98. Sultaniyazov Z. 97. Poe J. 12. Karimov R.	44. Ustimenko D. (G) 72. Senhadji R. 4. Cavnic N. 22. Marochkin A. 25. Borsic A. 8. Tagybergen A. (C) 6. Myakish M. 10. Chesnokov I. 14. Talal A. 99. Lisakovich V. 18. Milovanovic U.
Substitutes
13. Baybosynov N. 21. Berdibek D. 41. Efremenko D. (G) 8. Esimbekov D. 32. Falaye O. A. 24. Khalmatov M. 9. Leonardo Kalil 7. Mukhametzhanov T. 31. Rakhmetulla E. (G) 14. Raskatov V. 5. Toleuov B.	3. Asrankulov R. 34. Bakhytkiriev S. 38. Bakitzhanov A. 1. Busurmanov S. (G) 13. Cisse A. 30. Guerra L. 35. Melikhov Y. (G) 56. Musaev E. 5. Ndiaye P. 19. Zhumat D. 17. Zuev A.
Coaches
Eslyamov M.	Romashchenko M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
20', Opeh S. 🟨,
23', 0 - 1, Senhadji R. ⚽, Tagybergen A. (A),
35', Ustimenko D. 🟨,
36', Poe J. 🟨,
40', Senhadji R. ↓, Asrankulov R. ↑,
42', Borsic A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Shimamura Y. ↓, Khalmatov M. ↑,
46', Karimov R. ↓, Leonardo Kalil ↑,
52', 0 - 2, Lisakovich V. ⚽,
68', Marochkin A. 🟨,
68', Borsic A. 🟨,
72', Myakish M. 🟨,
73', Talal A. ↓, Ndiaye P. ↑,
76', Yudenkov R. 🟨,
90+3', Yudenkov R. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ First League and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ertis won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Tobol may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ertis won 3 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 13:23. (average 0.7:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Ertis won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 7:12. (average 0.7:1.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Tobol	26	10	4	12	33:35	-2	34
11	Ertis Pavlodar	25	6	8	11	26:34	-8	26

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ertis Pavlodar
Kazakh Premier League
09.08.26	Yelimay Semey - Ertis Pavlodar	3:1 ✺
01.08.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Kaspiy Aktau	3:2 ✺
25.07.26	Ulytau - Ertis Pavlodar	1:2 ✺
11.07.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Zhenis	0:1 ✺
05.07.26	Kaisar - Ertis Pavlodar	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.4 LWWLT
- Tobol Kostanay
UEFA Europa Conference League
13.08.26	Tobol Kostanay - Partizan	1:2 ✺
06.08.26	Partizan - Tobol Kostanay	3:0 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
02.08.26	Ordabasy - Tobol Kostanay	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
30.07.26	Tobol Kostanay - Panevėžys	2:1 penalties ✺
Kazakh Premier League
26.07.26	Tobol Kostanay - Atyrau	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
09.05.26	Tobol Kostanay - Ertis Pavlodar	1:0
17.08.19	Ertis Pavlodar - Tobol Kostanay	0:0
11.08.19	Ertis Pavlodar - Tobol Kostanay	0:2
09.03.19	Tobol Kostanay - Ertis Pavlodar	3:0
06.10.18	Tobol Kostanay - Ertis Pavlodar	1:2
22.07.18	Tobol Kostanay - Ertis Pavlodar	1:1
09.05.18	Ertis Pavlodar - Tobol Kostanay	0:1

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