Match Info

Southern League Premier Central - Round 40

Date: 18 April 2025, Friday


	Alvechurch		Hitchin Town

	1	X	2
	1.53	4.2	4.33
	1.49	4.3	5.2
	1.55	4.84	4.48
	1.58	4.57	4.65
	1.61	3.76	4.72
	1.49	4.3	5.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↓ (1.55)	4.33 ↑ (3.96)	4.76 ↓ (5.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alvechurch
59.5%

Draw
21.2%

Hitchin Town
19.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.9%

23%

18.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

16.9%

24.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alvechurch has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Hitchin Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alvechurch than the current prediction. (-16.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alvechurch that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hitchin Town than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Hitchin Town could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Alvechurch - Hitchin Town Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 4.25 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
16', 1 - 0, Sullivan C. ⚽,
23', 2 - 0, Wakefield K. ⚽,
41', 2 - 1, Franklin L. ⚽,
45+1', 3 - 1, Crowther A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
75', 4 - 1, Wakefield K. (Pen),

Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 13 and 21 in the zone Relegation).

Hitchin is Relegated to

Last 5 head-to-head matches Alvechurch won 2.

Both teams are in bad shape now.

In this match Alvechurch is a favorite.

Last 12 head-to-head matches Alvechurch won 5 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 17:18 (average 1.4:1.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Alvechurch won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 11:5 (average 2.2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alvechurch FC
English Southern League Central Division
12.04.25	Spalding United - Alvechurch	0:0 ✺
05.04.25	Alvechurch - Royston Town	0:2 ✺
29.03.25	Stourbridge - Alvechurch	1:0 ✺
25.03.25	Alvechurch - Sudbury Town	1:1 ✺
22.03.25	Alvechurch - Leiston	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 TLLTT
- Hitchin Town
English Southern League Central Division
12.04.25	Hitchin Town - Sudbury Town	0:1 ✺
05.04.25	Kettering Town - Hitchin Town	2:2 ✺
29.03.25	Hitchin Town - Royston Town	2:2 ✺
22.03.25	Spalding United - Hitchin Town	3:2 ✺
15.03.25	Hitchin Town - Halesowen Town	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LTTLL

Latest Head to Head

English Southern League Central Division
07.09.24	Hitchin Town - Alvechurch	0:1
20.01.24	Alvechurch - Hitchin Town	2:1
05.08.23	Hitchin Town - Alvechurch	2:0
15.04.23	Alvechurch - Hitchin Town	1:3
12.11.22	Hitchin Town - Alvechurch	2:1
26.03.22	Alvechurch - Hitchin Town	0:0
20.11.21	Hitchin Town - Alvechurch	0:1

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