Match Info

Southern League Premier Central - Round 42

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished


	Alvechurch		Leiston

	1	X	2
	2.28	3.4	2.62
	2.28	3.3	2.69
	2.35	3.56	2.75	Watch
	2.3	3.1	2.7
	2.3	3.3	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.3 ↓ (2.31)	3.33 ↓ (3.55)	2.7 ↑ (2.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alvechurch
39.3%

Draw
27.2%

Leiston
33.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

39.5%

25.7%

34.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40%

25.4%

34.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alvechurch has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Leiston has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alvechurch than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leiston than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Alvechurch - Leiston Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
15', 0 - 1, Mills A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
81', 1 - 1, Pearce K. ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 14 and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alvechurch won 0.

Alvechurch is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Leiston has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Alvechurch may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Alvechurch won 3 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 21:23. (average 1.5:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Alvechurch won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:7. (average 1.3:1.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Alvechurch	13	6	5	2	24:12	12	23
14	Leiston	12	4	3	5	22:23	-1	15

Last Results with these Odds

Leiston - the odds 2.62 are the expected chance of winning is 34.83%, but this team recently wins 40% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alvechurch FC
English Southern League Central Division
18.04.26	Real Bedford - Alvechurch	3:2 ✺
11.04.26	Alvechurch - Royston Town	1:0 ✺
06.04.26	Stourbridge - Alvechurch	1:1 ✺
03.04.26	Alvechurch - Barwell	2:1 ✺
28.03.26	Sudbury Town - Alvechurch	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LWTWW
- Leiston
English Southern League Central Division
18.04.26	Leiston - Spalding United	2:2 ✺
14.04.26	Real Bedford - Leiston	0:1 ✺
11.04.26	Quorn - Leiston	1:2 ✺
06.04.26	Leiston - Bury Town	1:3 ✺
03.04.26	Redditch United - Leiston	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.8 TWWLL

Latest Head to Head

English Southern League Central Division
20.01.26	Leiston - Alvechurch	3:3
22.03.25	Alvechurch - Leiston	1:1
12.11.24	Leiston - Alvechurch	2:1
24.02.24	Leiston - Alvechurch	2:2
28.11.23	Alvechurch - Leiston	0:2
11.02.23	Leiston - Alvechurch	1:1
English FA Trophy
19.11.22	Leiston - Alvechurch	4:3

Alvechurch - Leiston