Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 32

Date: 4 May 2025, Sunday

Location: FC Alverca Sports Complex (Alverca do Ribatejo)

Referee: Carvalho H. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV1


	Alverca		Paços de Ferreira

	1	X	2
	1.48	3.7	6.25
	1.58	3.7	4.75
	1.55	4	5.8
	1.53	4.37	6.12
	1.64	3.97	4.91	Watch
	1.6	3.6	5
	1.53	3.83	6.46	Watch
	1.52	4.1	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↑ (1.44)	3.91 ↓ (3.94)	5.66 ↓ (7.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alverca
59.8%

Draw
23.8%

Paços de Ferreira
16.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.4%

23.5%

12.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.2%

22.5%

11.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alverca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Paços de Ferreira has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alverca than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alverca, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paços de Ferreira than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Alverca - Paços de Ferreira Predictions

Users Predictions: Alverca will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
98. Joao Bravim (G) 22. David Bruno 5. Varela F. 6. Velazquez S. 74. Shinga K. 40. Ageu E. 35. Pedro Bicalho (C) 12. Reinaldo 88. Martins D. 7. Brenner 9. Carter A.	12. Jeimes (G) 22. Mota 3. Diegao 4. Cardoso G. 5. Antunes V. (C) 17. Paulo M. 8. Welton 11. Pavlic I. 90. Lumungo R. 19. Fonte R. 30. Costinha
Substitutes
3. Alysson 10. Andrezinho 20. Bukia A. 25. Dias R. 89. Joao Marcos 14. Pereira R. 16. Pires M. 23. Silva P. (G) 36. Thauan Lara	21. Anilson 27. Bazie J. 2. Icaro 6. Joao Caiado 99. Liberal A. 10. Morozov V. 18. Pedro R. 24. Pedro Z. (G) 13. Pinto J.
Coaches
Costa V.	Candido F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Pedro Bicalho ⚽, Carter A. (A),
27', Jeimes ↓, Pedro Z. ↑,
37', Costinha ↓, Pinto J. ↑,
43', Brenner 🟨,
45+2', Antunes V. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
59', Shinga K. ↓, Thauan Lara ↑,
66', Brenner ↓, Andrezinho ↑,
66', Martins D. ↓, Pires M. ↑,
73', Lumungo R. ↓, Anilson ↑,
73', Mota ↓, Morozov V. ↑,
74', Welton ↓, Joao Caiado ↑,
75', Ageu E. 🟨,
85', Carter A. ↓, Joao Marcos ↑,
85', Pedro Bicalho ↓, Dias R. ↑,
90+6', Joao Caiado 🟨,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal (Promotion: ) and 16 in the zone Liga Portugal 2 (Relegation)).

Alverca is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Paços de Ferreira has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Alverca may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Alverca is considered a favorite.

We predict that Alverca will win today's game, with odds of 1.6.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Alverca won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Alverca
Portuguese Liga 2
29.04.25	Chaves - Alverca	0:2 ✺
20.04.25	Alverca - Oliveirense	4:0 ✺
13.04.25	Vizela - Alverca	1:1 ✺
06.04.25	Alverca - Benfica B	0:0 ✺
30.03.25	Feirense - Alverca	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 WWTTW
- Paços de Ferreira
Portuguese Liga 2
25.04.25	Paços de Ferreira - Leiria	2:3 ✺
18.04.25	Portimonense - Paços de Ferreira	2:0 ✺
12.04.25	Paços de Ferreira - Tondela	0:1 ✺
06.04.25	Porto B - Paços de Ferreira	1:0 ✺
30.03.25	Paços de Ferreira - Chaves	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
22.12.24	Paços de Ferreira - Alverca	1:3

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