Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 29

Date: 12 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio da Capital do Móvel (Paços de Ferreira)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV2


	Paços de Ferreira		Tondela

	1	X	2
	3.8	3.2	1.91
	3.4	3.1	1.95
	3.65	3.25	2.04
	3.87	3.22	2.01	Watch
	3.7	3	2
	3.86	3.26	2.02
	3.65	3.25	2.04
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.7 ↑ (3.44)	3.18 ↑ (3.16)	2 ↓ (2.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paços de Ferreira
24.9%

Draw
29%

Tondela
46.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.1%

29.5%

43.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.4%

28.8%

44.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paços de Ferreira has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Tondela has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paços de Ferreira than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tondela than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	12.5%	87.5%

Paços de Ferreira - Tondela Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Tondela (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Paços de Ferreira (1.72) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Tondela will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Paços de Ferreira (votes: 1 - 25%). Tondela (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Jeimes (G) 22. Mota 2. Icaro 3. Diegao 5. Antunes V. (C) 17. Paulo M. 7. Nogueira G. 11. Pavlic I. 90. Lumungo R. 19. Fonte R. 30. Costinha	31. Bernardo (G) 5. Afonso J. 34. Alves R. (C) 6. Ceitil A. 48. Manso T. 26. Cunha N. 2. Bebeto 60. Maviram E. 30. Ramos R. 9. Miro 11. Costinha
Substitutes
21. Anilson 27. Bazie J. 23. Ferigra E. 6. Joao Caiado 10. Morozov V. 18. Pedro R. 24. Pedro Z. (G) 13. Pinto J. 8. Welton	23. Cascavel 97. Cicero 43. Joao Cesco 70. Moudjatovic M. 21. Pedro Maranhao 17. Roberto 1. Souza G. (G) 3. Tavares D. 8. Tavares H.
Coaches
Fangueiro C.	Pinto L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
23', Ramos R. 🟨,
27', Diegao 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
63', Ramos R. ↓, Pedro Maranhao ↑,
63', Maviram E. ↓, Moudjatovic M. ↑,
63', Cunha N. ↓, Cicero ↑,
68', Pavlic I. ↓, Joao Caiado ↑,
68', Diegao ↓, Ferigra E. ↑,
72', Bebeto ↓, Tavares H. ↑,
73', Afonso J. ↓, Roberto ↑,
73', 0 - 1, Miro ⚽, Tavares H. (A),
75', Mota ↓, Anilson ↑,
77', Paulo M. ↓, Morozov V. ↑,
90+3', Fonte R. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 15 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Paços de Ferreira won 2.

Paços de Ferreira is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Tondela in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Tondela will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 17 head-to-head matches Paços de Ferreira won 8 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 26:20 (average 1.5:1.2).

Including matches at home between the teams Paços de Ferreira won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 11:10 (average 1.4:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paços de Ferreira
Portuguese Liga 2
06.04.25	Porto B - Paços de Ferreira	1:0 ✺
30.03.25	Paços de Ferreira - Chaves	2:0 ✺
16.03.25	Vizela - Paços de Ferreira	2:1 ✺
08.03.25	Torreense - Paços de Ferreira	3:0 ✺
03.03.25	Paços de Ferreira - Oliveirense	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LWLLL
- CD Tondela
Portuguese Liga 2
05.04.25	Tondela - Feirense	2:1 ✺
29.03.25	Oliveirense - Tondela	1:3 ✺
16.03.25	Tondela - Benfica B	2:1 ✺
10.03.25	Leixões - Tondela	0:1 ✺
01.03.25	Tondela - Torreense	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
01.12.24	Tondela - Paços de Ferreira	2:1
05.02.24	Tondela - Paços de Ferreira	1:1
26.08.23	Paços de Ferreira - Tondela	5:1
Liga Portugal
02.05.22	Paços de Ferreira - Tondela	1:1
18.12.21	Tondela - Paços de Ferreira	0:1
18.05.21	Tondela - Paços de Ferreira	2:3
05.02.21	Paços de Ferreira - Tondela	2:1

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