Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie B - Round 36

Date: 12 November 2024, Tuesday

Location: Mineirão (Belo Horizonte)

Referee: Pinheiro J. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Canais Globo, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping


	América Mineiro		Ituano

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.33	6	Watch
	1.47	4.2	5.75
	1.47	4.5	6
	1.51	4.41	6.38
	1.5	4.3	6.02
	1.44	4.4	6.5
	1.43	4.6	6.73	Watch
	1.47	4.5	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↑ (1.41)	4.41 ↓ (4.43)	6.17 ↓ (7.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

América Mineiro
63.6%

Draw
21.3%

Ituano
15.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.1%

21%

13%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43%

13.7%

20%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

América Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Ituano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for América Mineiro than the current prediction. (-20.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with América Mineiro that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ituano than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.6%	14.3%	7.1%

América Mineiro - Ituano Predictions

Users Predictions: América Mineiro will win (10 of 12 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.24% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Elias (G) 36. Mateus Henrique 45. Ricardo Silva 3. Lucao 30. Nicolas 16. Ale 8. Juninho (C) 5. Elizari F. 80. Daniel Junior 75. Rodriguinho 9. Brenner	12. Jefferson Paulino (C) 2. Marcinho 3. Luiz Gustavo 4. Guilherme Mariano 6. Guilherme Lazaroni 5. Rodrigo 10. Jose Aldo 8. Yann Rolim 7. Vinicius Paiva 9. Thonny Anderson 11. Salatiel
Substitutes
44. Adyson 20. Daniel Borges 33. Eder 28. Fabinho 19. Felipe Amaral 12. Jori (G) 18. Julio 88. Matheus Davo 15. Moises 72. Paulinho 7. Vinicius 77. Wallisson	19. Alvaro 20. Bruno Xavier 15. Claudinho 18. de Almeida J. V. X. 14. Erik 23. Gabriel Falcao 13. Leo Duarte 22. Leozinho 21. Miqueias 17. Neto Berola 16. Richard 1. Saulo (G)
Coaches
Lisca	Elias C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
15', 0 - 1, Ricardo Silva (Own goal),
19', Yann Rolim 🟨,
38', Rodrigo 🟨,
41', 1 - 1, Nicolas ⚽, Elizari F. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Vinicius Paiva ↓, Bruno Xavier ↑,
46', Salatiel ↓, Leozinho ↑,
46', Brenner ↓, Matheus Davo ↑,
53', Bruno Xavier 🟨,
61', 2 - 1, Lucao ⚽,
65', 2 - 2, Bruno Xavier ⚽, Yann Rolim (A),
66', Rodrigo ↓, Gabriel Falcao ↑,
67', Rodriguinho ↓, Vinicius ↑,
67', Daniel Junior ↓, Fabinho ↑,
67', Ale ↓, Wallisson ↑,
78', Yann Rolim ↓, Miqueias ↑,
80', Luiz Gustavo 🟨,
83', Thonny Anderson ↓, Neto Berola ↑,
85', Elizari F. ↓, Moises ↑,
88', 3 - 2, Fabinho ⚽, Lucao (A),

Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 9 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

Recent matches América MG is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Ituano is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Ituano could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match América MG is the unquestionable favorite.

There will not play in América MG: Felipe Azevedo (Injury) Gustavinho (Injury) Martin Benitez (Injury)

There will not play in Ituano: Eduardo Diniz (Injury) Eduardo Person (Injury) Lipe (Injury) Ze Carlos (Injury) Ze Eduardo (Injury)

Last 1 head-to-head matches América MG won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- América Mineiro
Brazilian Serie B
05.11.24	Amazonas - América Mineiro	1:0 ✺
28.10.24	América Mineiro - Sport Recife	2:1 ✺
23.10.24	Operário Ferroviario - América Mineiro	1:0 ✺
17.10.24	América Mineiro - Goiás	2:2 ✺
11.10.24	Avaí - América Mineiro	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LWLTT
- Ituano
Brazilian Serie B
04.11.24	Ituano - CRB Maceio	1:2 ✺
28.10.24	Ituano - Santos	0:2 ✺
23.10.24	Botafogo SP - Ituano	0:1 ✺
19.10.24	Ituano - Ceará	1:2 ✺
14.10.24	Brusque - Ituano	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
23.07.24	Ituano - América Mineiro	0:0

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