Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie B - Round 32

Date: 19 October 2024, Saturday

Location: Estádio Novelli Júnior (Itu)

Referee: Correia B. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, BandSports, Canal GOAT, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, TV Brasil, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Ituano		Ceará

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.1	2.2	Watch
	3.1	3.1	2.2
	3.1	3.25	2.25
	3.42	3.2	2.29
	3.33	3.1	2.26	Watch
	3.2	3.1	2.25
	3.26	3.2	2.24	Watch
	3.1	3.25	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.23 ↑ (2.95)	3.16 ↑ (3.1)	2.24 ↓ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ituano
28.9%

Draw
29.5%

Ceará
41.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.9%

29.4%

39.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.3%

28.8%

40.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ituano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Ceará has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ituano than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	16.7%	50%

Ituano - Ceará Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Ituano will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Ceará will win (votes: 3 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Jefferson Paulino (G) 2. Marcinho 3. Luiz Gustavo 4. Guilherme Mariano 6. Guilherme Lazaroni 5. de Almeida J. V. X. 8. Miqueias 10. Yann Rolim 7. Leozinho 9. Thonny Anderson (C) 11. Bruno Xavier	94. Bruno Ferreira (G) 6. Ramos R. 3. Joao Pedro 4. David Ricardo 79. Matheus Bahia 8. De Lucca 97. Lourenco (C) 10. Lucas Mugni 11. Aylon 73. Saulo Mineiro 16. Erick Pulga
Substitutes
19. Alvaro 15. Claudinho 14. Erik 22. Gabriel Falcao 21. Joao Carlos 13. Leo Duarte 17. Neto Berola 16. Richard 18. Rodrigo 23. Salatiel 1. Saulo (G) 20. Vinicius Paiva	98. Andrey 31. Barcelo F. 14. Eric 5. Jean Irmer 77. Lucas Rian 13. Luiz Otavio 42. Matheus Felipe 12. Maycon Cleiton (G) 2. Rai Ramos 28. Recalde J. 26. Richardson 70. Talisson
Coaches
Alberto Valentim	Leo Conde

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
14', 1 - 0, Thonny Anderson ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Lucas Mugni ↓, Lucas Rian ↑,
48', Bruno Xavier 🟨,
64', De Lucca ↓, Richardson ↑,
66', Leozinho ↓, Vinicius Paiva ↑,
73', 1 - 1, Aylon ⚽,
74', Saulo Mineiro ↓, Barcelo F. ↑,
76', Luiz Gustavo 🟨,
78', Thonny Anderson 🟨,
79', 1 - 2, Lucas Rian ⚽, Lourenco (A),
80', Lucas Rian 🟨,
81', Bruno Xavier ↓, Joao Carlos ↑,
81', Yann Rolim ↓, Alvaro ↑,
89', de Almeida J. V. X. ↓, Gabriel Falcao ↑,
89', Miqueias ↓, Neto Berola ↑,
90+2', Marcinho 🟨,
90+6', Aylon ↓, Recalde J. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 7).

Ituano is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Ceará is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Ceará will have a mini benefit in this match.

There will not play in Ituano: Eduardo Diniz (Injury) Lipe (Injury) Ze Carlos (Injury) Ze Eduardo (Injury)

There will not play in Ceará: Fernando Miguel (Injury) Ramon Menezes (Injury)

There are questionable in Ceará: Richard (Injury)

Last 4 head-to-head matches Ituano won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7:6 (average 1.8:1.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Ituano won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4:1 (average 2:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ituano
Brazilian Serie B
14.10.24	Brusque - Ituano	1:0 ✺
05.10.24	Ituano - Guarani	1:0 ✺
27.09.24	Paysandu - Ituano	1:0 ✺
21.09.24	Ituano - Coritiba	0:1 ✺
17.09.24	Avaí - Ituano	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LWLLL
- Ceará SC
Brazilian Serie B
12.10.24	Ceará - Ponte Preta	1:0 ✺
07.10.24	Sport Recife - Ceará	2:1 ✺
27.09.24	Ceará - Brusque	1:0 ✺
22.09.24	Ceará - Vila Nova	4:0 ✺
18.09.24	Coritiba - Ceará	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
29.06.24	Ceará - Ituano	4:2
28.07.23	Ceará - Ituano	1:1
14.04.23	Ituano - Ceará	2:0
Copa do Brasil
15.03.23	Ituano - Ceará	2:1 penalties

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