Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie B - Round 33

Date: 23 October 2024, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Santa Cruz (Ribeirao Preto)

Referee: Zanovelli P. C. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Fox Sports
Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Canal GOAT, Claro TV+, Premiere, Rede Globo, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
World	Disney+


	Botafogo SP		Ituano

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.1	4.5	Watch
	1.93	3	4
	1.95	3.1	4.2
	1.97	3.14	4.68
	2.05	3.03	4.05	Watch
	1.91	3.1	4.33
	1.93	3.13	4.43	Watch
	1.95	3.1	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↑ (1.9)	3.09 ↓ (3.2)	4.3 ↑ (3.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Botafogo SP
48%

Draw
30.3%

Ituano
21.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.5%

28.2%

24.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.9%

26.8%

23.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Botafogo SP has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Ituano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Botafogo SP than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ituano than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Botafogo SP - Ituano Predictions

Users Predictions: Botafogo SP will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Victor Souza (G) 2. Ericson 3. Raphael 4. Bernardo Schappo 5. Carlos Manuel 8. Abdulai S. 10. Douglas Baggio (C) 6. Jean Victor 7. Victor Andrade 9. Alexandre Jesus 11. Negueba	12. Jefferson Paulino (C) 2. Leo Duarte 3. Claudinho 4. Guilherme Mariano 6. Guilherme Lazaroni 5. de Almeida J. V. X. 8. Jose Aldo 10. Yann Rolim 11. Bruno Xavier 9. Salatiel 7. Vinicius Paiva
Substitutes
17. Alex Sandro 23. Arthur Mosca 19. Bruno Marques 14. Fabio Sanches 18. Fillipe Soutto 20. Gustavo Bochecha 15. Joao Costa 21. Jonas Toro 22. Luquinha 12. Michael (G) 16. Patrick Brey 13. Thassio	19. Alvaro 14. Erik 23. Gabriel Falcao 21. Joao Carlos 13. Leo Oliveira 22. Leozinho 20. Miqueias 17. Neto Berola 15. Pedro Libardoni 16. Richard 18. Rodrigo 1. Saulo (G)
Coaches
Marcio Zanardi	Alberto Valentim

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
30', Carlos Manuel 🟥,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Douglas Baggio ↓, Gustavo Bochecha ↑,
46', Jean Victor ↓, Patrick Brey ↑,
46', de Almeida J. V. X. ↓, Neto Berola ↑,
50', Guilherme Lazaroni 🟨,
63', Salatiel ↓, Alvaro ↑,
63', Vinicius Paiva ↓, Leozinho ↑,
65', Abdulai S. 🟨,
73', Victor Andrade ↓, Alex Sandro ↑,
74', Bruno Xavier ↓, Joao Carlos ↑,
74', Abdulai S. ↓, Fillipe Soutto ↑,
81', 0 - 1, Guilherme Mariano ⚽, Joao Carlos (A),
82', Leo Duarte 🟨,
83', Raphael ↓, Jonas Toro ↑,
90+3', Yann Rolim ↓, Miqueias ↑,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 16 and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Botafogo SP won 0.

Recent matches Botafogo SP is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Ituano is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Ituano could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Botafogo SP is a favorite.

There will not play in Botafogo SP: Felipinho (Injury) Joao Carlos (Injury) Maciel L. (Injury) Matheus Barbosa (Injury) Matheus Costa (Injury) Pedro Costa (Injury) Robinho (Injury)

There will not play in Ituano: Eduardo Diniz (Injury) Lipe (Injury) Ze Carlos (Injury) Ze Eduardo (Injury)

There are questionable in Botafogo SP: Luquinha (Injury) Willian Gabriel (Injury)

Last 15 head-to-head matches Botafogo SP won 5 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 18:18 (average 1.2:1.2).

Including matches at home between the teams Botafogo SP won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 9:10 (average 1.1:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Botafogo SP
Brazilian Serie B
20.10.24	Sport Recife - Botafogo SP	3:1 ✺
12.10.24	Botafogo SP - Operário Ferroviario	0:0 ✺
09.10.24	Botafogo SP - Guarani	3:2 ✺
05.10.24	Ponte Preta - Botafogo SP	1:0 ✺
28.09.24	Vila Nova - Botafogo SP	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 LTWLT
- Ituano
Brazilian Serie B
19.10.24	Ituano - Ceará	1:2 ✺
14.10.24	Brusque - Ituano	1:0 ✺
05.10.24	Ituano - Guarani	1:0 ✺
27.09.24	Paysandu - Ituano	1:0 ✺
21.09.24	Ituano - Coritiba	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
07.07.24	Ituano - Botafogo SP	3:2
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
04.02.24	Ituano - Botafogo SP	0:0
Brazilian Serie B
30.09.23	Ituano - Botafogo SP	1:1
06.06.23	Botafogo SP - Ituano	0:2
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
08.02.23	Botafogo SP - Ituano	2:3
31.03.22	Botafogo SP - Ituano	0:3
Brazilian Serie C
25.09.21	Ituano - Botafogo SP	0:0

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