Match Info

Liga 3 - Round 16

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Amarante Stadium (Amarante)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Amarante		Braga B

	1	X	2
	2.45	2.82	2.88
	2.67	2.87	2.88	Watch
	2.4	2.8	2.9
	2.46	3.01	3.03	Watch
	2.36	2.83	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.47 ↓ (2.5)	2.87 (2.87)	2.94 ↑ (2.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Amarante
37%

Draw
31.9%

Braga B
31.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.3%

31.6%

32.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.8%

32%

32.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Amarante has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Braga B has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Amarante than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Braga B than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Amarante - Braga B Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Duarte M. (G) 6. Almeida F. 4. Filipe J. 5. Innusah H. 3. Mendes F. 28. Pedro R. 2. Ribeiro O. 10. Rodrigues D. 23. Saint-Louis J. 80. Ventura 22. Vivas S.	78. Carvalho J. (G) 72. Aragao J. 82. Costa G. 61. Ferreira T. 71. Lobo D. 60. Lomba J. 76. Marques T. 40. Matos Joao 59. Said Y. 96. Sousa A. 80. Vasconcelos
Substitutes
88. Aguiar E. 30. Antunes Tiago C. J. 90. Arome 7. Conceicao M. 13. Flores R. (G) 20. Moreno Tavares Cunha M. 99. Roger 17. Sousa G.	66. Dias G. (G) 44. Dinis G. 89. Duarte A. 86. Franca F. 92. Gil A. 99. Kauan Kelvin 85. Nanque E. 67. Patrao A. 88. Salvador J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
23', Costa G. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
59', Matos Joao 🟨,
60', 1 - 0, Rodrigues D. (Penalty Awarded),
69', Lobo D. ↓, Franca F. ↑,
69', Vasconcelos ↓, Gil A. ↑,
70', Ventura ↓, Conceicao M. ↑,
76', Aragao J. ↓, Patrao A. ↑,
79', Rodrigues D. ↓, Moreno Tavares Cunha M. ↑,
88', Saint-Louis J. ↓, Antunes Tiago C. J. ↑,
90+4', 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga 3 (Promotion Group: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga 3 (Promotion Group: )).

Amarante is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Braga B has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Amarante won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:4. (average 0.3:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Amarante won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Amarante FC
Portuguese Liga 3
04.01.26	São João de Ver - Amarante	0:1 ✺
21.12.25	Amarante - Fafe	3:2 ✺
14.12.25	Amarante - Marco 09	3:2 ✺
06.12.25	Sanjoanense - Amarante	0:2 ✺
29.11.25	Amarante - Vitoria Guimarães B	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.9 WWWWL
- Braga B
Portuguese Liga 3
04.01.26	Braga B - Marco 09	2:1 ✺
20.12.25	Sanjoanense - Braga B	0:2 ✺
13.12.25	Braga B - Vitoria Guimarães B	0:0 ✺
07.12.25	Varzim - Braga B	3:1 ✺
01.12.25	Braga B - Trofense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 WWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
05.10.25	Braga B - Amarante	1:0
12.01.25	Amarante - Braga B	1:1
29.09.24	Braga B - Amarante	0:0
Club Friendly
24.07.19	Amarante - Braga B	0:2

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