Match Info

Liga 3 - Round 8

Date: 26 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Amarante Stadium (Amarante)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Amarante		Paredes

	1	X	2
	3.1	2.92	2.2
	3.2	3.05	2.41
	3.14	2.96	2.37	Watch
	3.22	2.91	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.17 ↓ (3.19)	2.96 (2.96)	2.31 ↓ (2.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Amarante
29.1%

Draw
31.1%

Paredes
39.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.4%

31.7%

38.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.3%

31.6%

39%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Amarante has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Paredes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Amarante than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paredes than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Amarante - Paredes Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Duarte M. (G) 90. Arome 2. Ribeiro O. 3. Mendes F. 28. Pedro R. 4. Filipe J. 5. Innusah H. 6. Almeida F. 64. Vila D. (C) 80. Ventura 23. Saint-Louis J.	31. Matos F. (G) 2. Araujo P. 3. Duarte D. P. 44. Ferreira P. 26. Santos Outeiro D. 21. Veiga D. 6. Matheus Brito 84. Yuk J. 10. Soares A. (C) 7. Miguel 14. Erik
Substitutes
88. Aguiar E. 30. Antunes Tiago C. J. 13. Flores R. (G) 8. Helder Pedro 10. Rodrigues D. 99. Roger 17. Sousa G. 22. Vivas S.	24. Buby 8. Carvalho D. 22. Coutinho A. 9. Fonseca R. 16. Goncalves T. (G) 20. Lemos I. M. 4. Pereira Pacheco R. F. 29. Vasco Rocha 11. Zacarias V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
20', Filipe J. 🟨,
21', Pedro R. 🟨,
25', 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
74', Duarte D. P. 🟨,
82', 1 - 0, Saint-Louis J. ⚽,
85', 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 10 in the zone Liga 3 (Relegation Group: ) and 7 in the zone Liga 3 (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Amarante won 3.

Amarante has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Paredes has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Amarante may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Amarante won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:5. (average 1.1:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Amarante won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:4. (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Amarante FC
Taça de Portugal
19.10.25	Amarante - Leixões	1:2 ET ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
10.10.25	Fafe - Amarante	3:0 ✺
05.10.25	Braga B - Amarante	1:0 ✺
28.09.25	Amarante - São João de Ver	2:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
21.09.25	Amarante - União de Santarém	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LLLTW
- USC Paredes
Portuguese Liga 3
05.10.25	Paredes - Marco 09	2:0 ✺
28.09.25	Sanjoanense - Paredes	2:2 ✺
24.09.25	Paredes - Vitoria Guimarães B	1:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
20.09.25	Paredes - Chaves	0:2 ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
12.09.25	Varzim - Paredes	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WTTLT

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
14.01.24	Paredes - Amarante	1:3
Taça de Portugal
26.11.23	Paredes - Amarante	0:2
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
27.08.23	Amarante - Paredes	1:0
13.02.22	Paredes - Amarante	0:0
28.11.21	Amarante - Paredes	2:3
03.04.21	Amarante - Paredes	0:1
19.01.20	Paredes - Amarante	0:0

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