The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Paredes 33.1%
Draw 28.5%
Marco 09 38.4%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
41.8%
26.4%
31.8%
Our Initial ML Estimation
42.1%
26.6%
31.6%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Paredes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Paredes's form might have worsened.
Marco 09 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Marco 09's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paredes than the current prediction. (+9%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Paredes, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marco 09 than the current prediction. (-6.8%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Marco 09, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Paredes - Marco 09 Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
16. Goncalves T. (G) 2. Araujo P. 99. Balelo 3. Duarte D. P. 14. Erik 44. Ferreira P. 7. Miguel 4. Pereira Pacheco R. F. 26. Santos Outeiro D. 21. Veiga D. 84. Yuk J.
26. Ze Couto (G) 23. Garro L. 5. Nandinho 6. Pacheco F. 3. Pedro M. 7. Pedro P. 88. Silva D. 33. Silva J. 9. Soares P. 2. Sousa B. 95. Sousa V.
Substitutes
8. Carvalho D. 17. Dos Santos Guerra T. M. 20. Lemos I. M. 23. Macedo Z. 6. Matheus Brito 31. Matos F. (G) 5. Moreira Nuno 10. Soares A. 29. Vasco Rocha
99. Carvalho D. (G) 14. Doukoure H. 10. Duarte D. 79. Erivaldo 27. Guimaraes B. 18. Martins D. 21. Pedrosa C. 25. Pereira H. 17. Teixeira T.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
9', 0 - 1, Garro L. ⚽, Nandinho (A),
18', Goncalves T. ↓, Matos F. ↑,
18', Santos Outeiro D. ↓, Macedo Z. ↑,
28', Sousa B. 🟨,
34', Erik 🟨,
42', Nandinho 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Yuk J. ↓, Carvalho D. ↑,
65', Garro L. ↓, Pedrosa C. ↑,
68', 1 - 1, Erik ⚽, Pereira Pacheco R. F. (A),
80', Duarte D. P. 🟨,
86', Ferreira P. ↓, Soares A. ↑,
86', Erik ↓, Vasco Rocha ↑,
88', Araujo P. 🟨,
90', Sousa B. ↓, Pereira H. ↑,
90', Pedro P. ↓, Duarte D. ↑,
90', 2 - 1, Soares A. ⚽,
90+2', Miguel ↓, Moreira Nuno ↑,
90+5', Soares A. 🟨,
90+6', Vasco Rocha 🟨,
90+8', 2 - 2, Pereira H. (Penalty Awarded),
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Paredes won 3.
Paredes has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Marco is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Paredes won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:3. (average 1:0.4).
Including home matches between the teams, Paredes won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 0.7:0.7).
Last Results with these Odds
Paredes - the odds 2.2 are the expected chance of winning is 41.81%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.
Marco 09 - the odds 2.9 are the expected chance of winning is 31.78%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.
Portugal
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Goncalves T. (G) 
Erik 
Miguel 
Yuk J. 
Doukoure H. 
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