Match Info

Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 13

Date: 10 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Amarante Stadium (Amarante)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Amarante		União de Santarém

	1	X	2
	1.5	3.7	5.5
	1.51	3.85	5.92
	1.53	4.12	5.83	Watch
	1.53	3.5	5.75
	1.51	3.65	6.04
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↓ (1.72)	3.76 ↑ (3.4)	5.81 ↑ (4.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Amarante
60.1%

Draw
24.2%

União de Santarém
15.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54%

27.3%

18.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.4%

26.6%

18.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Amarante has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Amarante's performance.

União de Santarém has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Amarante than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for União de Santarém than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Amarante - União de Santarém Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Duarte M. (G) 3. Mendes F. 4. Filipe J. (C) 22. Vivas S. 80. Ventura 20. Moreno Tavares Cunha M. 58. Meireles A. 28. Pedro R. 8. Zangre A. 10. Rodrigues D. 23. Saint-Louis J.	22. Hidalgo N. (G) 58. Monteiro D. 28. Vinhas D. 4. Pereira P. 3. Joao Ricardo 7. Teixeira G. 16. Grilo M. (C) 20. Ventura B. 17. Aguas G. 11. Goncalves E. F. 84. Ayiah E.
Substitutes
88. Aguiar E. 30. Antunes Tiago C. J. 90. Arome 7. Conceicao M. 13. Flores R. (G) 5. Innusah H. 2. Ribeiro O. 99. Roger 71. Silva R.	90. Koume S. 10. Madeira T. 24. Medalli N. 15. Midoes R. 78. Pedro Teixeira (G) 5. Rodeia M. 33. Rodrigues M. 8. Souza E. 29. Teixeira R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
40', Meireles A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Meireles A. ↓, Innusah H. ↑,
46', Moreno Tavares Cunha M. ↓, Arome ↑,
61', Rodrigues D. ↓, Antunes Tiago C. J. ↑,
64', Vinhas D. 🟨,
67', Ayiah E. ↓, Medalli N. ↑,
71', Goncalves E. F. ↓, Koume S. ↑,
81', Monteiro D. ↓, Teixeira R. ↑,
81', Joao Ricardo ↓, Rodeia M. ↑,
81', Aguas G. ↓, Madeira T. ↑,
83', 1 - 0, Arome ⚽, Saint-Louis J. (A),
88', Saint-Louis J. ↓, Conceicao M. ↑,
90+2', Ventura ↓, Ribeiro O. ↑,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 8).

Amarante is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Santarém's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Amarante is a strong favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Amarante won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 2:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Amarante won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Amarante FC
Portuguese Liga 3
01.05.26	Trofense - Amarante	0:0 ✺
26.04.26	Amarante - Belenenses	2:2 ✺
19.04.26	Mafra - Amarante	1:4 ✺
12.04.26	Académica Coimbra - Amarante	1:1 ✺
04.04.26	Amarante - Varzim	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.2 TTWTW
- União de Santarém
Portuguese Liga 3
02.05.26	Belenenses - União de Santarém	1:1 ✺
26.04.26	União de Santarém - Académica Coimbra	1:1 ✺
19.04.26	Vitoria Guimarães B - União de Santarém	1:1 ✺
11.04.26	União de Santarém - Trofense	0:1 ✺
03.04.26	Mafra - União de Santarém	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 TTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
14.03.26	União de Santarém - Amarante	1:2
Taça de Portugal
21.09.25	Amarante - União de Santarém	2:0

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