Match Info

Liga 3 - Relegation Group - Round 9

Date: 26 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Conde Dias Garcia (São João da Madeira)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Sanjoanense		Paredes

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.3	1.9
	4.09	3.46	1.93
	3.9	3.5	1.9	Watch
	3.8	3.2	1.85
	3.87	3.45	1.92
	3.35	3.15	2.02
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.75 ↑ (3.35)	3.34 ↑ (3.15)	1.92 ↓ (2.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sanjoanense
24.5%

Draw
27.5%

Paredes
47.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.9%

28.6%

44.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.1%

27.4%

42.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sanjoanense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Paredes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sanjoanense than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paredes than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Paredes, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Sanjoanense - Paredes Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
36. Duarte A. (G) 20. Andrezinho 19. Cezar F. 16. Gomes V. 2. Martins J. 3. Nando 13. Pinheiro Edu 5. Santos R. 6. Serra A. 30. Talles Wander 12. Vitinha (C)	16. Goncalves T. (G) 2. Araujo P. 99. Balelo 44. Ferreira P. 20. Lemos I. M. 6. Matheus Brito 7. Miguel 5. Moreira Nuno 26. Santos Outeiro D. 10. Soares A. (C) 84. Yuk J.
Substitutes
25. Couto J. 21. Gomes R. 10. Kiko Felix 24. Maio F. 1. Monteiro J. (G) 8. Podstawski T. 7. Rocha T.	8. Carvalho D. 39. Dos Santos Guerra T. M. 9. Fonseca R. 23. Macedo Z. 4. Pereira Pacheco R. F. 19. Pires J. 12. Rodrigues M. (G) 29. Vasco Rocha 21. Veiga D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
30', 1 - 0, Andrezinho ⚽, Talles Wander (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Yuk J. ↓, Pires J. ↑,
46', Ferreira P. ↓, Dos Santos Guerra T. M. ↑,
53', Pinheiro Edu ↓, Podstawski T. ↑,
59', Soares A. ↓, Carvalho D. ↑,
59', Balelo ↓, Fonseca R. ↑,
69', Martins J. 🟨,
74', Cezar F. ↓, Couto J. ↑,
74', Andrezinho ↓, Kiko Felix ↑,
76', Dos Santos Guerra T. M. 🟨,
80', Gomes V. 🟨,
85', Goncalves T. ↓, Rodrigues M. ↑,
86', Vitinha 🟨,
88', Gomes V. ↓, Gomes R. ↑,
88', Talles Wander ↓, Rocha T. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sanjoanense won 0.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Sanjoanense may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Paredes is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Sanjoanense won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:12. (average 1.2:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Sanjoanense won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:3. (average 1.3:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Sanjoanense
Portuguese Liga 3
19.04.26	Braga B - Sanjoanense	1:2 ✺
11.04.26	Sanjoanense - Fafe	2:3 ✺
21.03.26	Marco 09 - Sanjoanense	0:0 ✺
15.03.26	Sanjoanense - Braga B	2:2 ✺
08.03.26	Sanjoanense - Marco 09	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 WLTTT
- USC Paredes
Portuguese Liga 3
18.04.26	Paredes - São João de Ver	0:0 ✺
12.04.26	Paredes - Braga B	4:1 ✺
22.03.26	Fafe - Paredes	1:0 ✺
15.03.26	São João de Ver - Paredes	3:1 ✺
08.03.26	Paredes - Fafe	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 TWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
22.02.26	Paredes - Sanjoanense	3:1
04.01.26	Paredes - Sanjoanense	3:0
28.09.25	Sanjoanense - Paredes	2:2
18.02.23	Sanjoanense - Paredes	1:1
04.11.22	Paredes - Sanjoanense	3:2
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
24.02.19	Sanjoanense - Paredes	1:0

Sanjoanense - Paredes: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide