Match Info

Cymru South - Round 8

Date: 26 September 2025, Friday


	Ammanford		Pontypridd United

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.8	2.62
	2.17	3.95	2.63
	2.60	2.96	2.83	Watch
	2.16	3.7	2.74
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.27 ↑ (1.63)	3.6 ↓ (3.88)	2.71 ↓ (4.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ammanford
40.5%

Draw
25.5%

Pontypridd United
34%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.7%

23.3%

20.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.5%

22.2%

19.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ammanford has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ammanford's form might have worsened.

Pontypridd United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Pontypridd United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ammanford than the current prediction. (+18%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ammanford, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pontypridd United than the current prediction. (-14.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Pontypridd United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Ammanford - Pontypridd United Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Pontypridd (1.96) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Pontypridd (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
74', 0 - 1, Hillman T. ⚽,
84', 1 - 1, Jones G. ⚽,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 5 and 15).

Ammanford has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Pontypridd is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Ammanford is seen as the favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ammanford won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 2:14. (average 0.4:2.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Ammanford won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:8. (average 0.7:2.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ammanford AFC
Welsh Cymru South
12.09.25	Trefelin - Ammanford	2:0 ✺
05.09.25	Ammanford - Caerau Ely	3:2 ✺
25.08.25	Aberystwyth Town - Ammanford	0:0 ✺
22.08.25	Ammanford - Treowen Stars	1:0 ✺
16.08.25	Ynyshir Albions - Ammanford	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 LWTWT
- Pontypridd United
Welsh Cymru South
12.09.25	Pontypridd United - Newport City	1:3 ✺
05.09.25	Pontypridd United - Carmarthen Town	3:1 ✺
25.08.25	Caerau Ely - Pontypridd United	2:0 ✺
22.08.25	Pontypridd United - Cardiff Draconians	1:2 ✺
16.08.25	Aberystwyth Town - Pontypridd United	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 LWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
08.02.25	Ammanford - Pontypridd United	2:3
01.11.24	Pontypridd United - Ammanford	3:0
10.12.21	Ammanford - Pontypridd United	0:2
06.11.21	Pontypridd United - Ammanford	3:0
25.02.20	Ammanford - Pontypridd United	0:3

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