Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie C - First stage - Round 10

Date: 24 June 2024, Monday

Location: Estádio Annibal Batista de Toledo (Aparecida de Goiânia)

Referee: Guimaraes Junior I. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, DAZN Brasil, IT tv Plus, Nosso Futebol+, Sky+, Zapping


	Aparecidense		Náutico Capibaribe

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.95	2.95	3.7
	2.05	3	3.6	Watch
	2.06	2.99	4.01
	2.02	2.98	4.02
	1.91	3	3.7
	1.96	3.08	3.82	Watch
	2.02	2.95	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↓ (2.29)	2.99 ↑ (2.95)	3.8 ↑ (3.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aparecidense
45.6%

Draw
30.4%

Náutico Capibaribe
24%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.1%

31.2%

28.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39%

30.4%

29.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aparecidense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Aparecidense's performance.

Náutico Capibaribe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aparecidense than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Aparecidense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Náutico Capibaribe could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	14.3%	14.3%

Aparecidense - Náutico Capibaribe Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Aparecidense will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Náutico will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pedro Henrique (G) 14. Da Silva 8. Du Fernandes 5. Guilherme Nunes 11. Igor Torres 7. Julio Cesar 13. Luan Sales 10. Robert (C) 6. Rodrigues 9. Rubens 3. Vanderley	1. Lucas Maticoli (G) 78. Andrey 2. Arnaldo 36. Diego Matos 10. Gustavo Maia 95. Iran 3. Joecio 72. Marco Antonio 9. Paulo Sergio 29. Renato 25. Sousa
Substitutes
21. Cauari 16. Emanuel 15. Enzo 20. Juninho 17. Luan Martins 25. Marcelinho 12. Matheus Alves (G) 18. Matheus Chaves 23. Matheus Inacio (G) 4. Mauricio 19. Rhuan 22. Wendell	80. Bruno Mezenga 18. Danilo Belao 43. Guilherme Matos 13. Kauan 32. Leo (G) 6. Luiz Paulo 8. Marco Antonio 20. Patrick Allan 26. Wendel Lessa
Coaches
Lucio F.	Bruno Pivetti

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
31', Julio Cesar ↓, Rhuan ↑,
33', 1 - 0, Rhuan ⚽,
36', 1 - 1, Paulo Sergio ⚽,
42', Joecio 🟨,
45+5', 1 - 2, Renato ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Robert ↓, Juninho ↑,
47', Gustavo Maia 🟨,
54', Marco Antonio ↓, Wendel Lessa ↑,
59', 2 - 2, Rubens ⚽,
64', Rubens 🟨,
66', Gustavo Maia ↓, Kauan ↑,
67', Diego Matos ↓, Luiz Paulo ↑,
68', Paulo Sergio 🟨,
70', Arnaldo ↓, Danilo Belao ↑,
70', Renato ↓, Marco Antonio ↑,
73', Guilherme Nunes 🟨,
80', Du Fernandes ↓, Luan Martins ↑,
80', Guilherme Nunes ↓, Matheus Chaves ↑,
87', 🟨,

Preview

Teams from a mid-table will play this time (ranked 12 and 14).

Recent matches Aparecidense is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Náutico is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Náutico could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Aparecidense will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Aparecidense won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-0.

Including matches at home between the teams Aparecidense won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AA Aparecidense
Brazilian Serie C
15.06.24	Aparecidense - Tombense	2:1 ✺
08.06.24	Ferroviária - Aparecidense	0:0 ✺
01.06.24	Confiança - Aparecidense	3:1 ✺
20.05.24	Athletic Club - Aparecidense	1:0 ✺
13.05.24	Aparecidense - São Bernardo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WTLLT
- Náutico Capibaribe
Brazilian Serie C
17.06.24	Náutico Capibaribe - Floresta	0:1 ✺
09.06.24	Náutico Capibaribe - Caxias	2:2 ✺
03.06.24	EC São José Porto Alegre - Náutico Capibaribe	2:0 ✺
25.05.24	Náutico Capibaribe - Remo	4:1 ✺
18.05.24	Volta Redonda - Náutico Capibaribe	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
13.05.23	Aparecidense - Náutico Capibaribe	3:0

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