The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Apollon Smyrni 12.2%
Draw 23.3%
AEK Athens 64.5%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
14%
19.7%
66.3%
Our Initial ML Estimation
12%
16.9%
77.4%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Apollon Smyrni has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)
AEK Athens has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Apollon Smyrni than the current prediction. (-0.2%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for AEK Athens than the current prediction. (+12.9%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that AEK Athens could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Apollon Smyrni - AEK Athens Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1
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Preview
This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 13 in the zone Super League (Relegation Group) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Super League (Championship Group)).
Apollon Smyrni has the most likely position - 14 (28.05%), has project points - 31, has currently - 5, has a chance of relegated (38%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).
AEK has the most likely position - 3 (29.09%), has project points - 66, has currently - 19, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of qualify for ucl (43%), has a small chance of win league (15%).
Apollon Smyrni is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
AEK is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).
AEK could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
In this match AEK is the unquestionable favorite.
Last 10 head-to-head matches Apollon Smyrni won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 10-18.
Including matches at home between the teams Apollon Smyrni won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 9-12.