Match Info

Kategoria e Parë - Round 24

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadiumi Loni Papuciu (Fier)

Where to Watch on TV:


World	FIFA+


	Apolonia Fier		Pogradeci

	1	X	2
	8.1	3.9	1.37	Watch
	4.5	3.73	1.52
	5.32	4.13	1.50	Watch
	5.93	3.88	1.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.96 ↑ (3.6)	3.91 ↑ (3.12)	1.47 ↓ (1.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Apolonia Fier
15.2%

Draw
23.1%

Pogradeci
61.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.1%

28.9%

46%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.3%

28%

47.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Apolonia Fier has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Apolonia Fier's form might have worsened.

Pogradeci has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Pogradeci's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Apolonia Fier than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Apolonia Fier, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pogradeci than the current prediction. (-14.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Pogradeci, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Apolonia Fier - Pogradeci Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1 - Apolonia (1.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Apolonia (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
12', 0 - 1, Lleshaj G. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
53', 1 - 1, ⚽,
89', 1 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Apolonia won 1.

Apolonia is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Pogradeci is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Pogradeci could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Apolonia won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:5. (average 1.4:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Apolonia won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:2. (average 2.7:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Pogradeci	4	2	2	0	5:1	4	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Apolonia Fier
Albanian First Division
22.02.26	Kastrioti - Apolonia Fier	1:0 ✺
14.02.26	Skënderbeu Korçë - Apolonia Fier	3:2 ✺
07.02.26	Apolonia Fier - Pogradeci	2:2 ✺
31.01.26	Iliria - Apolonia Fier	2:0 ✺
25.01.26	Apolonia Fier - Lushnja	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LLTLT
- KS Pogradeci
Albanian First Division
21.02.26	Pogradeci - Lushnja	3:1 ✺
15.02.26	Pogradeci - Burreli	2:0 ✺
07.02.26	Apolonia Fier - Pogradeci	2:2 ✺
31.01.26	Pogradeci - Korabi Peshkopi	3:1 ✺
24.01.26	Kastrioti - Pogradeci	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Albanian First Division
07.02.26	Apolonia Fier - Pogradeci	2:2
03.11.25	Pogradeci - Apolonia Fier	1:0
17.02.25	Pogradeci - Apolonia Fier	1:1
03.11.24	Pogradeci - Apolonia Fier	1:0
09.04.22	Apolonia Fier - Pogradeci	2:0
20.06.20	Pogradeci - Apolonia Fier	0:1
06.04.19	Apolonia Fier - Pogradeci	4:0

Apolonia Fier - Pogradeci: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide