Match Info

Date: 30 June 2022, Thursday

Location: Estadio Olimpico Hermanos Ghersi Paez (Maracay)


	Aragua		Metropolitanos

	1	X	2
	2.85	2.65	2.55	Watch
	2.95	2.7	2.45
	2.85	2.65	2.6
	3.08	2.39	2.41
	2.8	2.75	2.62
	3.13	2.83	2.52	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.94 ↓ (3.28)	2.66 ↓ (2.91)	2.53 ↑ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aragua
30.6%

Draw
33.8%

Metropolitanos
35.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.9%

31.4%

40.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.4%

30.8%

41.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aragua has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Metropolitanos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Metropolitanos might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aragua than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Metropolitanos than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Metropolitanos could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.5%	61.9%	28.6%

Aragua - Metropolitanos Predictions

Users Predictions: 42 users predict this event. Aragua will win (votes: 4 - 9.5%). Metropolitanos will win (votes: 12 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 26 - 61.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 47.2% – 76.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 13 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Division (Copa Libertadores ~ Play Offs)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Aragua won 0.

Aragua is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Metropolitanos is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match the chances to achieve triumph bor both teams are almost equal.

Last 17 head-to-head matches Aragua won 9 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 25-14.

Including matches at home between the teams Aragua won 6 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 10-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aragua FC
Venezuelan Primera Division
16.06.22	Portuguesa Acarígua - Aragua	1:0 ✺
09.06.22	Deportivo Táchira - Aragua	2:0 ✺
05.06.22	Aragua - Deportivo Táchira	1:0 ✺
27.05.22	Aragua - Portuguesa Acarígua	0:1 ✺
22.05.22	Metropolitanos - Aragua	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 LLWLT
- Metropolitanos FC
Venezuelan Primera Division
19.06.22	Metropolitanos - Academia Puerto Cabello	0:2 ✺
09.06.22	Deportivo Lara - Metropolitanos	1:2 ✺
05.06.22	Metropolitanos - Deportivo Lara	3:1 ✺
29.05.22	Academia Puerto Cabello - Metropolitanos	0:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
25.05.22	Lanús - Metropolitanos	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Venezuelan Primera Division
22.05.22	Metropolitanos - Aragua	1:1
04.12.21	Metropolitanos - Aragua	2:2
13.11.21	Aragua - Metropolitanos	0:2
19.11.20	Aragua - Metropolitanos	0:1
25.10.20	Metropolitanos - Aragua	2:2
31.01.20	Metropolitanos - Aragua	1:3
10.11.19	Metropolitanos - Aragua	1:1

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