Match Info

Premier League - Round 37

Date: 26 June 2026, Friday


	Arba Minch		Welwalo Adigrat

	1	X	2
	6.50	3.10	1.55
	5.80	3.10	1.62
	7.25	3.22	1.62
	7.24	3.09	1.6	Watch
	2.80	2.50	2.70
	7.80	3.23	1.51	Watch
	7	3.05	1.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.34 ↑ (2.48)	3.04 ↑ (2.65)	1.74 ↓ (3.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.50

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arba Minch
14.8%

Draw
30.9%

Welwalo Adigrat
54.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.4%

34%

29.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.1%

35.6%

28.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arba Minch has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-21.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Arba Minch's form might have worsened.

Welwalo Adigrat has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+24.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Welwalo Adigrat's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arba Minch than the current prediction. (+23.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Arba Minch, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Welwalo Adigrat than the current prediction. (-25.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Welwalo Adigrat, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.7%	0%	92.3%

Arba Minch - Welwalo Adigrat Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Arba Minch will win (votes: 1 - 7.7%). Welwalo Adigrat will win (votes: 12 - 92.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Welwalo Adigrat: 77.8% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
7', 0 - 1, Haftey S. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation and 16).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, Welwalo Adigrat is seen as the favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Arba Minch won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:3. (average 1.5:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Arba Minch won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1.5:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Welwalo Adigrat	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arba Minch FC
Ethiopian Premier League
22.06.26	Fasil Kenema - Arba Minch	2:0 ✺
15.06.26	Arba Minch - Shire Endaselassie	2:0 ✺
28.05.26	Mechal - Arba Minch	1:2 ✺
21.05.26	Arba Minch - Sidama Coffee	0:3 ✺
16.05.26	Hawassa City - Arba Minch	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.9 LWWLT
- Welwalo Adigrat University FC
Ethiopian Premier League
22.06.26	Welwalo Adigrat - Hadiya Hossana	0:1 ✺
16.06.26	Sheger Ketema - Welwalo Adigrat	0:0 ✺
30.05.26	Welwalo Adigrat - Ethiopian Medhin	1:1 ✺
Ethiopian Cup
25.05.26	Welwalo Adigrat - Mekelle 70 Enderta	1:0 penalties ✺
Ethiopian Premier League
21.05.26	Adama City - Welwalo Adigrat	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 LTTWT

Latest Head to Head

Ethiopian Premier League
01.02.26	Welwalo Adigrat - Arba Minch	1:2
23.05.25	Welwalo Adigrat - Arba Minch	1:1
23.11.24	Arba Minch - Welwalo Adigrat	2:0
10.12.17	Arba Minch - Welwalo Adigrat	1:1

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