Match Info
Stars League - Round 28Date: 14 April 2026, TuesdayWhere to Watch on TV: | |
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 Iraq | Al Iraqiya Sports |
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Al-Naft |
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Arbil |
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1 |
X |
2 |
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3.3 |
2.78 |
2.22 |
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3.56 |
2.53 |
2.3 |
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3.46 |
2.72 |
2.29 |
 Watch |
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3.1 |
2.63 |
2.3 |
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3.57 |
2.59 |
2.3 |
Watch |
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.4 ↑
(2.72) |
2.65 ↓
(3.09) |
2.28 ↓
(2.49) |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
- The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Al-Naft
26.5% | Draw
34% | Arbil
39.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Al-Naft has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Al-Naft's form might have worsened.Arbil has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al-Naft than the current prediction. (+5.6%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Al-Naft, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arbil than the current prediction. (-1.1%)Al Naft - Arbil Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 45+2', 0 - 1, Chobanov M. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 80', Hzair A. 🟥,
- 90+8', 0 - 2, Luqman G. ⚽, Ededem E. (A),
Preview
Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 11 and 4).In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Al-Naft won 1.Al-Naft is showing really good form (last 5 games: 2 wins).Arbil has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins โ 1).Arbil may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days. The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Al-Naft won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 7:13. (average 0.9:1.6).Including home matches between the teams, Al-Naft won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:6. (average 0.6:1.2).
Standings
| | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
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| 3 | Erbil | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 12:3 | 9 | 17 |
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| 6 | Al Naft | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 9:5 | 4 | 15 |
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Last Results with these Odds
Al-Naft - the odds 2.72 are the expected chance of winning is 33.64%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| Iraqi Premier League | | | 05.02.26 | Arbil - Al-Naft | 3:1 | | 16.04.25 | Arbil - Al-Naft | 2:3 | | 28.01.25 | Al-Naft - Arbil | 0:2 | | 12.05.24 | Al-Naft - Arbil | 0:1 | | 07.05.23 | Al-Naft - Arbil | 0:2 | | 05.12.22 | Arbil - Al-Naft | 2:0 | | 04.05.22 | Al-Naft - Arbil | 2:0 |
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Upcoming Matches
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
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