Match Info

SCOTLAND: League One - Round 29

Date: 15 March 2025, Saturday

Location: Gayfield Park (Arbroath)


	Arbroath		Dumbarton

	1	X	2
	1.36	4.75	6
	1.35	4.8	6
	1.35	5	7.2
	1.31	5.12	8.3
	1.38	4.82	7.53	Watch
	1.36	4.8	7.5
	1.34	4.9	7.55	Watch
	1.35	5	7.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↓ (1.45)	4.9 ↑ (4.43)	7.16 ↑ (5.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arbroath
68.3%

Draw
18.8%

Dumbarton
12.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.9%

20.6%

16.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.1%

19%

15.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arbroath has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Arbroath's performance.

Dumbarton has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arbroath than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dumbarton than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Arbroath - Dumbarton Predictions

Users Predictions: Arbroath will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. McAdams A. (G) 19. Penman C. 27. Muirhead A. 15. Watson K. 4. Wilkie J. 12. Stewart S. 20. Flynn R. (C) 14. Taylor F. 6. Stanton S. 22. Murray I. 25. Winter A.	1. Sliwinski M. (G) 18. Webster K. 2. Lynas A. 5. Durnan M. (C) 24. Clark C. 17. Hilton J. 31. Miller M. 12. Pignatiello C. 20. Niang M. 10. Gray F. 23. Ruth M.
Substitutes
9. Gallagher C. 7. Gold D. 31. Mcconnell J. (G) 5. O'Brien T. 32. Spalding A. 2. Steele A. 26. Thomson J.	6. Blair R. 14. Gilfedder A. 28. Kelly S. (G) 21. McGuffie C. 9. Mumbongo J. 7. Orsi K. 11. Wallace T. 8. Wilson D. 3. Young G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Stanton S. ⚽, Penman C. (A),
45+1', Lynas A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
58', Miller M. 🟨,
63', Penman C. ↓, Steele A. ↑,
69', Murray I. ↓, Gallagher C. ↑,
70', Miller M. ↓, McGuffie C. ↑,
70', Hilton J. ↓, Orsi K. ↑,
78', Pignatiello C. ↓, Wilson D. ↑,
78', Gray F. ↓, Wallace T. ↑,
81', Ruth M. 🟨,
83', Lynas A. ↓, Mumbongo J. ↑,
86', 1 - 1, Ruth M. ⚽,
89', Flynn R. ↓, Spalding A. ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Arbroath won 1.

Arbroath is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Dumbarton has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recently Dumbarton have a series of home games.

In this match Arbroath is certain favorite.

Our prediction for today's Arbroath to win the game is with odds 1.32.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Arbroath won 3 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 12:14 (average 1.1:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Arbroath won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 6:7 (average 1.2:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arbroath
Scottish League One
08.03.25	Alloa Athletic - Arbroath	2:3 ✺
04.03.25	Dumbarton - Arbroath	1:2 ✺
01.03.25	Arbroath - Annan Athletic	3:0 ✺
25.02.25	Arbroath - Kelty Hearts	2:1 ✺
22.02.25	Stenhousemuir - Arbroath	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WWWWL
- Dumbarton
Scottish League One
08.03.25	Dumbarton - Inverness	0:1 ✺
04.03.25	Dumbarton - Arbroath	1:2 ✺
01.03.25	Dumbarton - Stenhousemuir	1:3 ✺
22.02.25	Cove Rangers - Dumbarton	2:1 ✺
15.02.25	Dumbarton - Montrose	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Scottish League One
04.03.25	Dumbarton - Arbroath	1:2
19.10.24	Arbroath - Dumbarton	1:3
24.08.24	Dumbarton - Arbroath	2:2
04.05.19	Arbroath - Dumbarton	1:1
02.03.19	Dumbarton - Arbroath	2:0
20.10.18	Arbroath - Dumbarton	3:1
18.08.18	Dumbarton - Arbroath	1:1

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