Match Info

Challenge Cup - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 16 December 2025, Tuesday

Location: Dumbarton Football Stadium (Dumbarton)


	Dumbarton		Inverness

	1	X	2
	4	4	1.62
	4.05	3.95	1.67
	4.25	4.16	1.64	Watch
	4.5	3.6	1.62
	4.57	3.85	1.61
	4	4	1.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.23 ↓ (6.45)	3.93 ↓ (4.85)	1.64 ↑ (1.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 8.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dumbarton
21.5%

Draw
23.1%

Inverness
55.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

14.3%

19%

66.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

13.7%

18.2%

69.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dumbarton has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Dumbarton's performance.

Inverness has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Inverness might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dumbarton than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Dumbarton that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Inverness than the current prediction. (+14.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Inverness could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	25%	50%

Dumbarton - Inverness Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Dumbarton will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Inverness will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Dumbarton (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 7)
4', 0 - 1, Bavidge A. ⚽, Millen R. (A),
22', 0 - 2, MacLeod C. ⚽, Longstaff L. (A),
23', 0 - 3, McKay B. ⚽,
27', 0 - 4, Bavidge A. ⚽, Robertson M. (A),
31', 0 - 5, Bavidge A. ⚽, MacIntyre O. (A),
37', 0 - 6, Bavidge A. ⚽,
43', 0 - 7, Longstaff L. ⚽, MacIntyre O. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
65', 0 - 8, Millen R. (Penalty Awarded),
81', 0 - 9, McKay B. ⚽, Stewart A. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dumbarton won 2.

Dumbarton has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Inverness is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Dumbarton may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Dumbarton has had a series of home games.

In this match, Inverness is the obvious favorite.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Dumbarton won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 9:15. (average 0.9:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Dumbarton won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:6. (average 1.2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dumbarton
Scottish League Two
13.12.25	Dumbarton - East Kilbride	2:0 ✺
06.12.25	Edinburgh City - Dumbarton	4:3 ✺
Scottish Cup
29.11.25	Dumbarton - Auchinleck Talbot	0:4 ✺
Scottish League Two
22.11.25	Dumbarton - Forfar Athletic	1:4 ✺
Scottish Challenge Cup
19.11.25	Dumbarton - Stenhousemuir	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WLLLL
- Inverness CT
Scottish League One
13.12.25	Inverness - Hamilton Academical	4:0 ✺
Scottish Cup
10.12.25	Tranent Juniors - Inverness	1:2 ✺
Scottish League One
25.11.25	Alloa Athletic - Inverness	1:1 ✺
22.11.25	Inverness - Queen of the South	4:0 ✺
Scottish Challenge Cup
11.11.25	Inverness - Dundee United 2	6:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Scottish League One
08.03.25	Dumbarton - Inverness	0:1
04.01.25	Inverness - Dumbarton	2:0
26.10.24	Dumbarton - Inverness	3:1
03.08.24	Inverness - Dumbarton	1:1
Scottish League Cup
18.07.23	Dumbarton - Inverness	2:1
Scottish Football Championship
18.04.18	Dumbarton - Inverness	0:1
14.04.18	Inverness - Dumbarton	5:1

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