Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 9 - Round 20

Date: 1 February 2026, Sunday


	Arenas Armilla		Atlético Porcuna

	1	X	2
	1.98	3.1	3.45
	1.98	3.23	3.68
	6.89	3.44	1.55	Watch
	2	3	3.4
	1.91	3.18	3.8
	2.05	3.14	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.8 ↑ (2.02)	3.18 ↑ (3)	3.21 ↓ (3.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arenas Armilla
36.3%

Draw
32%

Atlético Porcuna
31.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.4%

29.9%

25.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.8%

30.9%

24.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arenas Armilla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Arenas Armilla's form might have worsened.

Atlético Porcuna has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Atlético Porcuna's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arenas Armilla than the current prediction. (+9.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Arenas Armilla, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Porcuna than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Atlético Porcuna, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Arenas Armilla - Atlético Porcuna Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
31', 0 - 1, Ruiz O. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
90+3', 0 - 2, Romero A. ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 9 (Play Offs: ) and 13).

Recent performances by Arenas Armilla have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Atlético Porcuna is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Arenas Armilla may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Arenas Armilla is seen as the favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arenas Armilla won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 8:4. (average 1.6:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Arenas Armilla won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 2:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Arenas Armilla	5	3	2	0	8:4	4	11
10	Atletico de Porcuna	5	2	0	3	6:14	-8	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arenas Armilla
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 9
24.01.26	Torre Del Mar - Arenas Armilla	1:1 ✺
18.01.26	Arenas Armilla - El Palo	3:0 ✺
14.01.26	Alhaurino - Arenas Armilla	0:0 ✺
10.01.26	Arenas Armilla - UD San Pedro	2:0 ✺
20.12.25	Arenas Armilla - Torredonjimeno	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 TWTWL
- Atlético Porcuna
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 9
25.01.26	Atlético Porcuna - Churriana de la Vega	0:0 ✺
18.01.26	Torreperogil - Atlético Porcuna	0:3 ✺
11.01.26	Atlético Porcuna - Motril	1:0 ✺
03.01.26	Torre Del Mar - Atlético Porcuna	2:1 ✺
21.12.25	Atlético Porcuna - El Palo	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21 TWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 9
21.09.25	Atlético Porcuna - Arenas Armilla	0:1
06.04.25	Atlético Porcuna - Arenas Armilla	1:1
24.11.24	Arenas Armilla - Atlético Porcuna	1:2
23.04.23	Atlético Porcuna - Arenas Armilla	0:2
17.12.22	Arenas Armilla - Atlético Porcuna	3:1

Arenas Armilla - Atlético Porcuna: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide