Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 16

Date: 13 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio El Toralín (Ponferrada)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Ponferradina		Arenteiro

	1	X	2
	1.73	3	5
	1.82	3.05	4.65
	1.77	3.18	5.57
	1.95	2.89	4.77	Watch
	1.75	2.9	4.6
	1.8	3.12	5.2
	1.7	3.1	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↓ (1.84)	3.03 ↓ (3.2)	4.97 ↑ (4.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ponferradina
51.3%

Draw
30.2%

Arenteiro
18.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.5%

29%

20.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.4%

27.9%

19.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ponferradina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Arenteiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponferradina than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arenteiro than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	25%	0%

Ponferradina - Arenteiro Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Ponferradina will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ponferradina (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Ponferradina (1.37) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ponferradina (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Prieto A. (C) 21. Moreno D. 3. Novoa G. 4. Moltenis B. 15. Sousa V. 14. Fernandez X. 16. Frimpong E. 8. Aguilar Elizalde E. 17. Keita A. 9. Cortes J. 18. Vazquez B.	1. Alvin (G) 19. Alpha M. 4. Falcon E. 3. Lohr L. 15. Moreno D. 6. Val B. 14. Safrai 11. Cuellar J. 25. Bastida A. 7. Ferreiro D. 18. Mingo V.
Substitutes
2. Andujar D. 25. Barredo P. (G) 20. Ferrer P. 13. Jimenez A. (G) 26. Kysil V. 12. Lian 11. Mula A. 28. Sanchez Gonzalez A. 6. San Emeterio F. 7. Sergio Benito 5. Undabarrena E.	10. De Camargo W. 13. Garcia D. (G) 8. Gonzalez D. 16. Guerrero J. 30. Iglesias F. 21. Llacer L. 2. Moya P. 12. Ochoa M. 23. Romera D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
27', Alpha M. 🟨,
31', Fernandez X. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 3)
53', 0 - 1, Mingo V. ⚽,
61', Sousa V. ↓, San Emeterio F. ↑,
61', Fernandez X. ↓, Ferrer P. ↑,
61', Keita A. ↓, Mula A. ↑,
63', 0 - 2, Mingo V. ⚽,
69', 0 - 3, Bastida A. ⚽,
71', Cortes J. ↓, Sergio Benito ↑,
76', Safrai ↓, Gonzalez D. ↑,
78', Alpha M. 🟨,
83', Cuellar J. ↓, Llacer L. ↑,
87', 1 - 3, Sergio Benito ⚽,
90', Aguilar Elizalde E. ↓, Andujar D. ↑,
90+5', Ferreiro D. ↓, Moya P. ↑,
90+5', Mingo V. ↓, Ochoa M. ↑,
90+9', 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 15 and 19 in the zone Relegation).

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

Ponferradina may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Ponferradina is seen as the favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ponferradina won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:3. (average 1.2:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Ponferradina won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1.5:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Ponferradina - the odds 1.84 are the expected chance of winning is 50.47%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Ponferradina
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
08.12.25	Unionistas de Salamanca - Ponferradina	2:2 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
04.12.25	Ponferradina - Racing Santander	1:2 ET ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
29.11.25	Ponferradina - Arenas Club de Getxo	1:2 ✺
23.11.25	Celta de Vigo B - Ponferradina	2:0 ✺
15.11.25	Ponferradina - Lugo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 TLLLT
- CD Arenteiro
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
07.12.25	Arenteiro - Talavera de la Reina	1:0 ✺
29.11.25	Tenerife - Arenteiro	1:0 ✺
22.11.25	Arenteiro - Ourense CF	0:2 ✺
16.11.25	Athletic Bilbao B - Arenteiro	2:1 ✺
08.11.25	Arenteiro - Ferrol	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
15.03.25	Arenteiro - Ponferradina	0:1
22.09.24	Ponferradina - Arenteiro	1:2
Club Friendly
06.08.24	Arenteiro - Ponferradina	0:2
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
21.04.24	Arenteiro - Ponferradina	0:0
03.01.24	Ponferradina - Arenteiro	2:1

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