Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 18

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Alfredo di Stéfano Stadium (Madrid)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Real Madrid Castilla		Arenteiro

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.25	4.2
	1.68	3.4	4.33
	1.82	3.3	4.15
	1.8	3.4	4.58	Watch
	1.85	3	4
	1.79	3.26	4.28
	1.76	3.14	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.78 ↑ (1.72)	3.25 ↓ (3.29)	4.29 ↓ (4.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Madrid Castilla
51%

Draw
27.9%

Arenteiro
21.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.2%

27.8%

19%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.9%

28.7%

18.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid Castilla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Arenteiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid Castilla than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arenteiro than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Real Madrid Castilla - Arenteiro Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Real Madrid Castilla will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fran (G) 17. Fortea J. 3. Valdepenas V. 21. Aguado D. 32. Navascues L. 10. Palacios C. 14. Cestero Sancho J. 6. Perea C. 30. Mesonero D. 9. Zuniga L. 7. Yanez D.	1. Alvin (G) 19. Alpha M. 4. Falcon E. 3. Lohr L. 15. Moreno D. 11. Cuellar J. 25. Bastida A. 8. Gonzalez D. 7. Ferreiro D. 6. Val B. 12. Ochoa M.
Substitutes
33. Castrelo G. 23. Fati L. 18. Fettal R. 20. Fortuny P. 41. Galassi B. 39. Leiva A. 15. Martinez J. 4. Rivas M. 13. Sunico G. (G)	10. De Camargo W. 13. Garcia D. (G) 44. Gimenez F. 16. Guerrero J. 21. Llacer L. 18. Mingo V. 2. Moya P. 23. Romera D. 14. Safrai

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Valdepenas V. ↓, Leiva A. ↑,
46', Perea C. ↓, Martinez J. ↑,
46', Navascues L. ↓, Fati L. ↑,
57', Ochoa M. ↓, Mingo V. ↑,
57', Cuellar J. ↓, De Camargo W. ↑,
63', Zuniga L. ↓, Fettal R. ↑,
67', Gonzalez D. ↓, Safrai ↑,
67', Alpha M. ↓, Llacer L. ↑,
71', 1 - 0, Fettal R. ⚽,
80', Val B. ↓, Guerrero J. ↑,
90+1', 2 - 0, Palacios C. ⚽,
90+1', 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Group 1 and 15).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Real Madrid Castilla may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Real Madrid Castilla is considered a favorite.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Madrid Castilla
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
20.12.25	Celta de Vigo B - Real Madrid Castilla	1:0 ✺
13.12.25	Real Madrid Castilla - CD Guadalajara	3:1 ✺
07.12.25	Zamora - Real Madrid Castilla	2:2 ✺
29.11.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Barakaldo	2:1 ✺
21.11.25	Unionistas de Salamanca - Real Madrid Castilla	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LWTWL
- CD Arenteiro
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
21.12.25	Arenteiro - Osasuna B	2:0 ✺
13.12.25	Ponferradina - Arenteiro	1:3 ✺
07.12.25	Arenteiro - Talavera de la Reina	1:0 ✺
29.11.25	Tenerife - Arenteiro	1:0 ✺
22.11.25	Arenteiro - Ourense CF	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 WWWLL

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