Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 33

Date: 19 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio de Espiñedo (Ourense)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Arenteiro		Mérida AD

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.3	2.63
	2.48	3.2	2.68
	2.59	3.22	2.65
	2.57	3.27	2.67	Watch
	2.5	2.9	2.6
	2.52	3.05	2.59
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.49 ↑ (2.38)	3.16 ↓ (3.47)	2.64 ↓ (2.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arenteiro
36.6%

Draw
28.8%

Mérida AD
34.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39%

26.8%

34.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.2%

26.7%

34%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arenteiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Mérida AD has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arenteiro than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mérida AD than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Arenteiro - Mérida AD Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Garcia D. (C) 22. Sanchez J. 2. Moya P. 5. Perez G. 15. Moreno D. 23. Kandoussi B. 21. Lopez A. 25. Bastida A. 10. Chuca 18. Mingo V. 7. Ferreiro D.	1. Csenterics A. (G) 5. Dominguez J. 4. Pareja L. 3. Lancho J. 23. Verges E. 16. Capitas M. 17. Herranz Corral V. 8. Solar M. 10. Doncel C. (C) 9. Hallsson S. 18. Dibrani B.
Substitutes
19. Alpha M. 1. Alvin (G) 11. Cuellar J. 4. Falcon E. 8. Gonzalez D. 3. Lohr L. 17. Molina A. 14. Safrai 6. Val B.	11. Areso J. 13. Cacharron P. (G) 7. Chiqui 14. El Ftouhi S. 6. Geovanny 26. Gil A. (G) 12. Gomes R. 28. Martinez M. 24. Pereira R. 19. Pipe

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
4', 0 - 1, Capitas M. ⚽,
24', 🟨,
29', 🟨,
33', 🟨,
45+5', 🟨,
45+8', 🟨,
45+10', 0 - 2, Lancho J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
48', 🟨,
59', 🟨,
90+2', 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation and 10).

Recent form of Arenteiro has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Mérida AD's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Arenteiro may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Arenteiro won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	AD Merida	6	2	0	4	9:11	-2	6

Last Results with these Odds

Arenteiro - the odds 2.38 are the expected chance of winning is 39.05%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Arenteiro
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
12.04.26	Barakaldo - Arenteiro	1:1 ✺
05.04.26	Arenteiro - Arenas Club de Getxo	1:2 ✺
28.03.26	Unionistas de Salamanca - Arenteiro	3:1 ✺
20.03.26	Arenteiro - Celta de Vigo B	1:1 ✺
14.03.26	Zamora - Arenteiro	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 TLLTL
- Mérida AD
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
12.04.26	Mérida AD - Tenerife	1:1 ✺
04.04.26	Ponferradina - Mérida AD	4:1 ✺
28.03.26	Mérida AD - Ferrol	2:1 ✺
20.03.26	Athletic Bilbao B - Mérida AD	1:1 ✺
13.03.26	Mérida AD - CD Guadalajara	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 TLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
18.10.25	Mérida AD - Arenteiro	3:1

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