What is the expert prediction for Aris vs AEK Athens?

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Aris vs AEK Athens Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Sunday, January 11, 2026)

Match Info

Super League - Round 16

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium (Thessaloniki)

Referee: Saggi R. (Nor)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 3
Bulgaria	Diema Sport, Play Diema Xtra
Croatia	SportKlub 5
Greece	Nova Sports Prime
Kosovo	Arena Premium 4
Russia	Telekanal Futbol
Serbia	Arena Premium 4


	Aris		AEK Athens

	1	X	2
	4.5	3.5	1.76	Watch
	5.25	3.6	1.66
	4.5	3.5	1.81
	4.68	3.4	1.8	Watch
	4.4	3.3	1.75
	4.62	3.42	1.79	Watch
	4.75	3.6	1.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.67 ↑ (4.57)	3.47 ↑ (3.33)	1.76 ↓ (1.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aris
20%

Draw
26.9%

AEK Athens
53.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.4%

28%

51.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.6%

28.2%

51.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aris has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

AEK Athens has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aris than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AEK Athens than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.7%	11.5%	80.8%

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Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1 - Aris (1.57) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: AEK Athens will win (21 of 26 users predict this - 80.77%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.62% – 95.92%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): AEK Athens will win (12 of 12 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Aris (votes: 1 - 7.7%). AEK (votes: 12 - 92.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Athanasiadis G. (G) 15. Tejero A. 24. Alvaro P. 92. Rose L. 27. Fadiga N. 10. Racic U. (C) 8. Monchu 7. Perez C. 97. Jensen F. 28. Dudu 9. Kadewere T.	1. Strakosha T. (G) 28. Odubajo M. 2. Moukoudi H. (C) 44. Relvas F. 3. Pilios S. 23. Ljubicic R. 18. Marin R. 13. Pineda O. 10. Joao Mario 11. Koita A. 9. Jovic L.
Substitutes
49. Boussaid O. 13. Dioudis S. (G) 11. Donis A. 4. Fabiano 17. Frydek M. 6. Galanopoulos K. 70. Gianniotas G. 25. Gning M. 30. Kamtsis C. 21. Majkic L. (G) 18. Morutan O. 77. Panagidis M.	81. Angelopoulos A. (G) 91. Brignoli A. (G) 19. Eliasson N. 8. Gacinovic M. 15. Georgiev M. 4. Grujic M. 17. Kaloskamis D. 7. Kutesa D. 20. Mantalos P. 29. Penrice J. 25. Varga B. 21. Vida D.
Coaches
Jimenez M.	Nikolic M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
8', 0 - 1, Koita A. ⚽, Ljubicic R. (A),
11', 1 - 1, Jensen F. ⚽,
30', Pineda O. 🟨,
39', Koita A. 🟨,
39', Kadewere T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
61', Pineda O. ↓, Mantalos P. ↑,
66', Athanasiadis G. 🟨,
66', Ljubicic R. ↓, Varga B. ↑,
66', Joao Mario ↓, Eliasson N. ↑,
80', Jensen F. ↓, Galanopoulos K. ↑,
84', Koita A. ↓, Kutesa D. ↑,
90+3', Monchu 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Super League (Conference League Group: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Super League (Championship Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aris won 0.

Recent performances by Aris have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

AEK is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Aris may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, AEK is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Aris: Alfarela M. (Foot Injury) Donis A. (Injury) Mendyl H. (Knee Injury) Moron L. (Yellow Cards) Sonko Sundberg N. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in AEK: Callens A. (Heart Problems) Gacinovic M. (Ankle Injury) Pierrot F. (Injury) Zini (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Aris: Sisto P. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Aris won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 17:32. (average 0.9:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Aris won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:14. (average 1.4:1.6).

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Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	AEK Athens	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
7	Aris	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aris Thessaloniki
Greek Cup
06.01.26	Aris - Panetolikos	2:0 ✺
Greek Super League
20.12.25	Asteras Tripolis - Aris	0:1 ✺
14.12.25	Aris - Olympiacos Piraeus	0:0 ✺
07.12.25	PAOK - Aris	3:1 ✺
Greek Cup
03.12.25	Aris - PAOK	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 WWTLT
- AEK Athens
Greek Super League
21.12.25	AEK Athens - OFI	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
18.12.25	AEK Athens - Universitatea Craiova	3:2 ✺
Greek Super League
14.12.25	Panetolikos - AEK Athens	0:5 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
11.12.25	Samsunspor - AEK Athens	1:2 ✺
Greek Super League
07.12.25	AEK Athens - Atromitos Athens	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Greek Super League
23.11.25	AEK Athens - Aris	1:0
09.03.25	Aris - AEK Athens	0:0
Greek Cup
03.12.24	Aris - AEK Athens	1:1
Greek Super League
30.11.24	AEK Athens - Aris	4:0
Greek Cup
30.10.24	AEK Athens - Aris	1:0
Greek Super League
21.04.24	Aris - AEK Athens	1:2
14.04.24	AEK Athens - Aris	2:0

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