Match Info

Date: 29 July 2021, Thursday


	Aris		Astana

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.45	3.7	6.5
	1.4	4.3	7.15	Watch
	1.39	4.1	6.4
	1.39	3.56	6.17
	1.42	3.75	6.5
	1.43	4.33	6.6	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.41 ↓ (1.67)	3.96 ↑ (3.68)	6.55 ↑ (4.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aris
63.6%

Draw
22.7%

Astana
13.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.8%

24.9%

20.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.4%

17.4%

29%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aris has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Aris's performance.

Astana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Astana might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aris than the current prediction. (-25.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Aris that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Astana than the current prediction. (+15.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Astana could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	5%	32.5%

Aris - Astana Predictions

Users Predictions: 40 users predict this event. Aris will win (votes: 25 - 62.5%). Astana will win (votes: 13 - 32.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Aris: 47.5% – 77.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 0-2.

Aris is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Astana is in a marvelous shape and in addition in the last match got series victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recently Aris have a series of guest games.

Recently Astana have a series of home games.

In this match Aris is the unquestionable favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Aris won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aris Thessaloniki
Club Friendly
24.07.21	Aris - Hapoel Jerusalem	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
22.07.21	Astana - Aris	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
21.07.21	Skra Częstochowa - Aris	0:2 ✺
14.07.21	Olympiacos Piraeus - Aris	3:0 ✺
14.07.21	Jagiellonia Białystok - Aris	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LLWLT
- FC Astana
Kazakh Cup
25.07.21	Astana - Akzhayik	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
22.07.21	Astana - Aris	2:0 ✺
Kazakh Cup
16.07.21	Astana - Aktobe	3:2 ✺
10.07.21	Kaisar - Astana	0:0 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
02.07.21	Astana - Shakhter Karagandy	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
22.07.21	Astana - Aris	2:0

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