Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 18

Date: 6 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadion Miejski w Gdyni (Gdynia)

Referee: Raczkowski P. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	Arena Sport 5, Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz


	Arka Gdynia		Motor Lublin

	1	X	2
	2.6	3.2	2.6	Watch
	2.68	3.2	2.52	Watch
	2.78	3.26	2.67
	2.72	3.28	2.63	Watch
	2.7	3.1	2.5
	2.67	3.29	2.67	Watch
	2.66	3.2	2.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.69 ↑ (2.39)	3.22 ↑ (2.99)	2.61 ↓ (2.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arka Gdynia
34.9%

Draw
29.1%

Motor Lublin
36%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.4%

29.9%

32.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.3%

31.4%

31.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arka Gdynia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Motor Lublin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arka Gdynia than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Motor Lublin than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	50%	16.7%

Arka Gdynia - Motor Lublin Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Arka will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). Motor will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 21.7% – 78.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Motor (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Motor (1.77) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Motor (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
77. Weglarz D. (G) 29. Marcjanik M. 23. Hermoso K. 94. Gojny D. (C) 2. Navarro M. 8. Sidibe A. 35. Jakubczyk K. 9. Gaprindashvili T. 31. Rusyn N. 99. Espiau Hernandez E. D. 37. Kerk S.	1. Brkic I. (G) 28. Stolarski P. 18. Najemski A. 3. Matthys H. 24. Luberecki F. 6. Samper S. 26. Krol M. 8. Scalet M. 68. Wolski B. (C) 11. Fabio Ronaldo 9. Czubak K.
Substitutes
33. Abramowicz D. 18. Celestine J. 1. Grobelny J. (G) 27. Oliveira J. 22. Percan 6. Perea L. 17. Predenkiewicz M. 32. Stolc P. 21. Szysz P. 14. Vitalucci H.	39. Bartos M. 77. Dadashov R. 42. Ede B. 23. Haxha F. 10. Karasek K. 21. Labojko J. 16. Lewandowski F. 2. Meyer P. 33. Tratnik G. (G) 19. van Hoeven B. 17. Wojcik F.
Coaches
Szwarga D.	Stolarski M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
17', Espiau Hernandez E. D. 🟨,
29', Stolarski P. ↓, Wojcik F. ↑,
44', Luberecki F. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
58', Wolski B. 🟨,
66', Fabio Ronaldo ↓, van Hoeven B. ↑,
66', Luberecki F. ↓, Haxha F. ↑,
75', Sidibe A. ↓, Predenkiewicz M. ↑,
75', Gaprindashvili T. ↓, Perea L. ↑,
75', Rusyn N. ↓, Szysz P. ↑,
79', Samper S. ↓, Labojko J. ↑,
79', Najemski A. ↓, Bartos M. ↑,
81', Scalet M. 🟨,
84', 1 - 0, Perea L. ⚽,
87', Espiau Hernandez E. D. ↓, Percan ↑,
88', Jakubczyk K. 🟨,
89', Kerk S. ↓, Oliveira J. ↑,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 15 and 13)

Arka is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Motor is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Motor may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Arka: Nguiamba A. (Red Card) Zator D. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Motor: Czubak K. (Injury) Ndiaye M. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arka won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:5. (average 1.2:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Arka won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:2. (average 1.3:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arka Gdynia
Polish Ekstraklasa
30.11.25	Arka Gdynia - Raków Częstochowa	1:4 ✺
21.11.25	Termalica Nieciecza - Arka Gdynia	2:0 ✺
09.11.25	Arka Gdynia - Lech Poznań	3:1 ✺
02.11.25	Górnik Zabrze - Arka Gdynia	5:1 ✺
Polish Cup
30.10.25	Arka Gdynia - Górnik Zabrze	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LLWLL
- Motor Lublin
Polish Ekstraklasa
01.12.25	Motor Lublin - Legia Warsaw	1:1 ✺
22.11.25	Cracovia - Motor Lublin	1:2 ✺
08.11.25	Motor Lublin - Wisła Płock	1:1 ✺
02.11.25	Lech Poznań - Motor Lublin	2:2 ✺
24.10.25	Motor Lublin - Widzew Łódź	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25 TWTTW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Cup
25.09.25	Arka Gdynia - Motor Lublin	1:0 ET
Polish Ekstraklasa
20.07.25	Motor Lublin - Arka Gdynia	1:0
Polish Division 1
02.06.24	Arka Gdynia - Motor Lublin	1:2
12.04.24	Motor Lublin - Arka Gdynia	2:2
29.09.23	Arka Gdynia - Motor Lublin	2:0

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