Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 19

Date: 1 February 2026, Sunday


	Arosa		Gran Peña

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.4	4.35
	1.66	3.69	4.68
	1.68	3.69	4.56
	1.67	3.4	4.5
	1.68	3.54	4.48
	1.66	3.6	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 (1.68)	3.55 ↓ (3.6)	4.51 ↑ (4.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arosa
54.3%

Draw
25.6%

Gran Peña
20.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.1%

25.2%

20.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55%

24.8%

20.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arosa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Gran Peña has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arosa than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gran Peña than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Arosa - Gran Peña Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
55', 1 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 1 (Play Offs: ) and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arosa won 1.

Arosa is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Gran Peña has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Arosa is the team to beat.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Arosa won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:11. (average 1.3:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Arosa won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:3. (average 1.3:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Gran Pena	5	2	1	2	8:8	0	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arosa SC
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
25.01.26	Silva SD - Arosa	1:2 ✺
18.01.26	Céltiga - Arosa	3:4 ✺
11.01.26	Arosa - Juventud Cambados	1:1 ✺
21.12.25	Boiro - Arosa	3:0 ✺
14.12.25	Arosa - Barco	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WWTLW
- Gran Peña FC
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
25.01.26	Gran Peña - Atlético Arteixo	2:0 ✺
18.01.26	Gran Peña - Noia	5:0 ✺
11.01.26	RC Villalbes - Gran Peña	1:0 ✺
21.12.25	Gran Peña - Barbadás	1:2 ✺
14.12.25	Alondras - Gran Peña	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
14.09.25	Gran Peña - Arosa	2:2
20.04.25	Gran Peña - Arosa	1:2
06.12.24	Arosa - Gran Peña	2:2
04.02.24	Gran Peña - Arosa	3:0
17.09.23	Arosa - Gran Peña	0:0
12.03.23	Gran Peña - Arosa	2:1
20.11.22	Arosa - Gran Peña	2:1

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