Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 7

Date: 29 September 2025, Monday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Arouca (Arouca)

Referee: Verissimo F. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	ZAP
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7
Denmark	Bold+
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free
Georgia	Silk Sport 1, Silk Universal
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Hungary	Sport 1
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	DAZN Italia
Kazakhstan	Sport+
Kosovo	Arena Premium 4
Kuwait	KTV Sport
Lithuania	Sport 1
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4
Poland	Eleven Sports 2
Portugal	Sport TV1
Serbia	Arena Premium 4
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Play Latinoamerica
Suriname	SCCN
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Inter
World	Triller TV+


	Arouca		Porto

	1	X	2
	9	5.75	1.17	Watch
	10.5	5.9	1.24	Watch
	11.84	6.27	1.25
	7.81	5.68	1.32	Watch
	10.5	5.6	1.29	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	9.93 ↑ (7.38)	5.84 ↑ (4.65)	1.25 ↓ (1.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arouca
9.4%

Draw
16%

Porto
74.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

12.6%

20%

67.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

12.1%

19.3%

69.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arouca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Porto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Porto's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Porto than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Arouca - Porto Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.25 - Porto (1.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Porto (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Porto will win (23 of 23 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Porto will win (11 of 11 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Porto (votes: 13 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Valido J. (G) 28. Tiago Esgaio 4. Rocha M. 5. Popovic B. 16. Sola A. 21. Fukui T. 8. Simao D. (C) 19. Trezza A. 10. Gozalbez P. 7. Djouahra N. 17. Barbero I.	99. Costa D. (C) 52. Fernandes M. 5. Bednarek J. 4. Kiwior J. 74. Moura F. 8. Froholdt V. 22. Varela A. 10. Veiga G. 11. Pepê 9. Samu 17. Sainz B.
Substitutes
78. Alex Pinto 44. Dante A. 66. Fayed O. 77. Jansonas R. 24. Mansilla B. 58. Mantl N. (G) 23. Nandin D. 11. Puche 22. van Ee E.	14. Claudio Ramos (G) 20. Costa A. 6. Eustaquio S. 27. Gul D. 75. Karamoh Y. 86. Mora R. 13. Rosario P. 7. William Gomes 12. Zaidu
Coaches
Seabra V.	Farioli F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
3', Trezza A. 🟨,
6', Fernandes M. 🟨,
12', 0 - 1, Samu ⚽, Froholdt V. (A),
33', Popovic B. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
46', Samu ↓, Gul D. ↑,
48', Fernandes M. 🟨,
51', Veiga G. ↓, Rosario P. ↑,
51', 0 - 2, Gul D. ⚽, Pepê (A),
56', Trezza A. ↓, Mansilla B. ↑,
60', 0 - 3, Moura F. ⚽, Sainz B. (A),
63', Gul D. 🟨,
64', Gozalbez P. 🟨,
65', Gozalbez P. ↓, Puche ↑,
65', Djouahra N. ↓, Nandin D. ↑,
69', Moura F. ↓, Zaidu ↑,
69', Pepê ↓, Costa A. ↑,
69', Sainz B. ↓, Prpic D. ↑,
69', Simao D. 🟨,
74', Tiago Esgaio 🟨,
79', Barbero I. ↓, Jansonas R. ↑,
79', Simao D. ↓, van Ee E. ↑,
85', 0 - 4, Zaidu ⚽, Costa A. (A),

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 10 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arouca won 1.

In recent matches, Arouca has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Porto is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Porto may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Porto is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Arouca: Flores M. (Inactive) Fontan J. (Red Card)

There will not play in Porto: Perez N. (Injury) de Jong L. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Arouca: Sola A. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Porto: Zaidu (Injury)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Arouca won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 14 matches, and goals 10:48. (average 0.6:2.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Arouca won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 5:22. (average 0.6:2.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Porto - the odds 1.38 are the expected chance of winning is 67.34%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Arouca
Liga Portugal
20.09.25	Nacional - Arouca	1:2 ✺
14.09.25	Arouca - Casa Pia	0:2 ✺
30.08.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Arouca	1:1 ✺
23.08.25	Arouca - Rio Ave	3:3 ✺
17.08.25	Sporting Lisbon - Arouca	6:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WLTTL
- FC Porto
UEFA Europa League
25.09.25	Red Bull Salzburg - Porto	0:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
19.09.25	Rio Ave - Porto	0:3 ✺
13.09.25	Porto - Nacional	1:0 ✺
30.08.25	Sporting Lisbon - Porto	1:2 ✺
24.08.25	Porto - Casa Pia	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
01.03.25	Arouca - Porto	0:2
29.09.24	Porto - Arouca	4:0
12.02.24	Arouca - Porto	3:2
03.09.23	Porto - Arouca	1:1
08.05.23	Arouca - Porto	0:1
Taça de Portugal
11.01.23	Porto - Arouca	4:0
Liga Portugal
28.12.22	Porto - Arouca	5:1

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