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Current Win Probability
Nacional 41.1%
Draw 29.1%
Arouca 29.8%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
36.8%
29%
34.2%
Our Initial ML Estimation
36.7%
29.1%
34.3%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)
Arouca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (-4.4%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (+4.5%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
70%
20%
10%
Nacional - Arouca Predictions
Users Predictions:
10 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Arouca will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%). Confidence interval (95%) for Nacional: 41.6% โ 98.4%.
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Arouca (votes: 3 - 100%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
37. Lucas Franca (G) 2. Aurelio J. (C) 34. Leo Santos 38. Ze Vitor 5. Jose Gomes 15. Labidi C. 6. Matheus Dias 28. Liziero 11. Paulinho Boia 9. Ramirez J. 99. Pablo Ruan
1. Valido J. (G) 28. Tiago Esgaio 3. Fontan J. 5. Popovic B. 44. Dante A. 21. Fukui T. 8. Simao D. (C) 19. Trezza A. 14. Lee H. 7. Djouahra N. 23. Nandin D.
Substitutes
19. Joao L. 1. Kaique Pereira (G) 16. Nunez A. 26. Silva J. 22. Soares F. 18. Sousa A. 4. Ulisses 30. Watts 7. Witi
78. Alex Pinto 17. Barbero I. 10. Gozalbez P. 24. Mansilla B. 58. Mantl N. (G) 89. Pedro Santos 11. Puche 4. Rocha M. 22. van Ee E.
Coaches
Margarido T.
Seabra V.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
4', Ramirez J. (Pen),
5', Liziero 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
57', Fontan J. 🟨,
62', Lee H. ↓, Gozalbez P. ↑,
66', 1 - 0, Ramirez J. (Pen),
71', Nandin D. ↓, Barbero I. ↑,
71', Trezza A. ↓, Mansilla B. ↑,
74', 1 - 1, Popovic B. ⚽, Djouahra N. (A),
78', Pablo Ruan ↓, Witi ↑,
79', Matheus Dias 🟥,
82', Labidi C. ↓, Ulisses ↑,
84', Fukui T. ↓, van Ee E. ↑,
84', Djouahra N. ↓, Puche ↑,
85', Fontan J. 🟨,
88', Leo Santos ↓, Soares F. ↑,
89', 1 - 2, van Ee E. ⚽, Barbero I. (A),
90+6', Ramirez J. 🟨,
Preview
Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 13 and 12).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 1.
Nacional is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Arouca has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins โ 1).
In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
There will not play in Nacional: Baeza M.
(Knee Injury)
Deivison
(Inactive)
Fernandes I.
(Inactive)
There will not play in Arouca: Flores M.
(Inactive)
There are questionable in Arouca: Sola A.
(Inactive)
In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 13:19. (average 1:1.5).
Including home matches between the teams, Nacional won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:8. (average 1.3:1.3).
Finland
Portugal
Ukraine
Watch
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Lucas Franca (G) 
Aurelio J. (C) 
Labidi C. 
Ramirez J. 
Fontan J. 
Popovic B. 
Dante A. 
Fukui T. 
Trezza A. 
Lee H. 
Djouahra N. 
Joao L. 
Nunez A. 
Witi 
Mantl N. (G) 
van Ee E. 
