Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL - ROUND 25

Date: 18 March 2023, Saturday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Arouca (Arouca)

Referee: Ferreira V. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Arouca		Paços de Ferreira

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.25	3.4	Watch
	2.15	3.25	3.3
	2.14	3.15	3.35
	2.09	3.3	3.5
	2.27	3.27	3.48
	2.2	3.1	3.4
	2.21	3.34	3.32	Watch
	2.2	3.3	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.18 ↑ (1.91)	3.25 ↓ (3.35)	3.39 ↓ (3.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arouca
43.3%

Draw
29%

Paços de Ferreira
27.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.8%

27.8%

23.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.6%

27.4%

23%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arouca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Arouca's form might have worsened.

Paços de Ferreira has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Arouca, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paços de Ferreira than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
93.3%	0%	6.7%

Arouca - Paços de Ferreira Predictions

Users Predictions: Arouca will win (14 of 15 users predict this - 93.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.7% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 6 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2).

Arouca has the most likely position - 5 (26.68%), project points - 50, currently - 37, a very small chance of relegated (<1%), a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Paços de Ferreira has the most likely position - 17 (42.12%), project points - 24, currently - 15, a good chance of relegated (84%), not chance of qualify for ucl.

This event has quality 44, small importance 16, small match rating 30. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Arouca won 0.

Arouca is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Paços de Ferreira is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Paços de Ferreira could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Arouca will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Arouca: Vitinho (Injury)

There will not play in Paços de Ferreira: Djalo M. (Injury)

Last 15 head-to-head matches Arouca won 1 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 12-21.

Including matches at home between the teams Arouca won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 7-12.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Arouca
Liga Portugal
11.03.23	Vitoria Guimarães - Arouca	0:2 ✺
03.03.23	Boavista - Arouca	0:0 ✺
25.02.23	Arouca - Casa Pia	2:0 ✺
19.02.23	Braga - Arouca	2:0 ✺
11.02.23	Arouca - Santa Clara	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 WTWLW
- Paços de Ferreira
Liga Portugal
11.03.23	Paços de Ferreira - Santa Clara	1:0 ✺
06.03.23	Casa Pia - Paços de Ferreira	2:1 ✺
26.02.23	Paços de Ferreira - Boavista	1:3 ✺
18.02.23	Estoril Praia - Paços de Ferreira	1:3 ✺
06.02.23	Portimonense - Paços de Ferreira	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
02.10.22	Paços de Ferreira - Arouca	1:1
12.03.22	Arouca - Paços de Ferreira	0:1
24.10.21	Paços de Ferreira - Arouca	0:0
Portuguese Liga 2
28.04.19	Arouca - Paços de Ferreira	1:3
02.01.19	Paços de Ferreira - Arouca	1:0
Portuguese League Cup
30.07.17	Arouca - Paços de Ferreira	1:2
Liga Portugal
08.04.17	Paços de Ferreira - Arouca	1:1

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