Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 8

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estádio Municipal de Arouca (Arouca) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Filipe L. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	ZAP
Brazil	16:30	Disney+, N Sports
Usa	15:30	beIN Connect
International	19:30	OneFootball TV


	Arouca		Estrela da Amadora

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.30	3.50	Watch
	2.15	3.30	3.20
	2.12	3.40	3.30	Watch
	2.17	3.53	3.46
	2.14	3.45	3.38	Watch
	2.14	3.45	3.40
	2.19	3.65	3.34	Watch
	2.12	3.40	3.30
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↓ (2.16)	3.44 ↓ (3.48)	3.36 ↑ (3.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arouca
44.3%

Draw
27.5%

Estrela da Amadora
28.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

43.8%

27.2%

29.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.5%

28.3%

28%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arouca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Estrela da Amadora has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estrela da Amadora than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Arouca - Estrela da Amadora Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Estrela (1.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (1.74) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Arouca (2.04) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Arouca will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Arouca (votes: 1 - 50%). Estrela (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. De Arruabarrena I. (G) 28. Tiago Esgaio (C) 15. Sanchez J. 3. Fontan J. 18. Lebedenko O. 6. van Ee E. 8. Fukui T. 19. Trezza A. 10. Gozalbez P. 7. Djouahra N. 17. Barbero I.	24. Leo Linck (G) 21. Scholze M. 30. Luan Patrick 5. Lekovic S. (C) 55. Rafa Soares 78. Serra S. 39. Doue G. 99. Marcus A. 14. Zvonarek L. 10. Stoica I. 37. Antonetti L.
Substitutes
37. Climent M. 21. Flores M. 14. Lee Hyun-ju 24. Mansilla B. 9. Mayulu F. 4. Monteiro D. 23. Nandin D. 89. Pedro Santos 5. Popovic B. 20. Rukavina G. 2. Shahar L. 1. Vinarcik J. (G)	80. Alisson Souza 4. Bernardo Schappo 79. Chernev A. 17. Encada J. 6. Jansson K. 3. Mincarelli L. 49. Mitongo R. 28. Moustier T. 71. Pedro Vanga E. 51. Pinto D. (G) 72. Poniewas H. 93. Souza B.
Coaches
Severino V.	Miguel P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Barbero I. ⚽, Djouahra N. (A),
45+2', Stoica I. (Penalty Awarded),
45+6', Gozalbez P. 🟨,
45+8', Barbero I. 🟨,
45+8', Marcus A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
50', Scholze M. 🟨,
57', Gozalbez P. ↓, Pedro Santos ↑,
61', Stoica I. ↓, Souza B. ↑,
61', Scholze M. ↓, Encada J. ↑,
63', Pedro Santos 🟨,
65', Barbero I. ↓, Nandin D. ↑,
65', Djouahra N. ↓, Rukavina G. ↑,
79', Fukui T. ↓, Lee Hyun-ju ↑,
79', Trezza A. ↓, Mansilla B. ↑,
81', Fukui T. 🟨,
82', Doue G. ↓, Pedro Vanga E. ↑,
88', Fontan J. 🟨,
90+1', Zvonarek L. ↓, Jansson K. ↑,
90+1', Serra S. ↓, Alisson Souza ↑,

Preview

An upper-table contender faces a competitive test against mid-table opposition (ranked 6th and 9th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arouca won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Arouca holding a narrow advantage.

Confirmed absences for Arouca: Puche (Knee Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Arouca: Gozalbez P. (Injury).

In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Arouca has recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 8:6 (averaging 1.3:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Arouca against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 2:0 goals (averaging 0.7:0 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Arouca	9	5	2	2	12:7	5	17
12	Estrela	9	2	4	3	14:17	-3	10

Outrights of Liga Portugal for now

Arouca: 0.54%

Last Results with these Odds

Estrela da Amadora - the odds 3.25 are the expected chance of winning is 29.08%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Arouca
Liga Portugal
19.09.26	Sporting Lisbon - Arouca	2:2 ✺
13.09.26	Arouca - Santa Clara	1:2 ✺
07.09.26	Estoril Praia - Arouca	0:0 ✺
29.08.26	Arouca - Marítimo	2:1 ✺
23.08.26	Porto - Arouca	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.4 TLTWL
- Estrela da Amadora
Liga Portugal
20.09.26	Estrela da Amadora - Académico de Viseu	0:2 ✺
14.09.26	Rio Ave - Estrela da Amadora	3:3 ✺
10.09.26	Estrela da Amadora - Braga	2:1 ✺
05.09.26	Estrela da Amadora - Famalicão	2:2 ✺
30.08.26	Nacional - Estrela da Amadora	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 LTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
19.04.26	Arouca - Estrela da Amadora	1:0
07.12.25	Estrela da Amadora - Arouca	3:1
19.04.25	Arouca - Estrela da Amadora	1:0
09.12.24	Estrela da Amadora - Arouca	2:1
05.05.24	Arouca - Estrela da Amadora	0:0
28.12.23	Estrela da Amadora - Arouca	1:4

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