Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 14 - Round 30

Date: 13 April 2025, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	WebDirecto


	Arroyo		Diocesano

	1	X	2
	4	4	1.62
	4.3	4.1	1.6
	5.16	3.74	1.57
	4.3	4.1	1.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.44 ↑ (4.39)	3.99 ↑ (3.98)	1.6 ↓ (1.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arroyo
20.4%

Draw
22.8%

Diocesano
56.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.8%

22.9%

56.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.1%

22.2%

58.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arroyo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Diocesano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arroyo than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Diocesano than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Arroyo - Diocesano Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
32', 1 - 0, Cortes Gallego K. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
84', 1 - 1, Mena I. ⚽,
90', 1 - 2, Castro Ramos F. ⚽,

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation and 6).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Arroyo won 0.

Arroyo is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Diocesano is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Diocesano is a favorite.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Arroyo won 1 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 7:10 (average 0.9:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Arroyo won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4:5 (average 0.8:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arroyo
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
06.04.25	Azuaga - Arroyo	3:1 ✺
30.03.25	Arroyo - Castuera	2:2 ✺
23.03.25	Trujillo - Arroyo	0:0 ✺
16.03.25	Arroyo - Pueblonuevo	1:2 ✺
09.03.25	Puebla de la Calzada - Arroyo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LTTLL
- CD Diocesano
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
06.04.25	Diocesano - Llerenense	0:2 ✺
30.03.25	Olivenza - Diocesano	2:2 ✺
23.03.25	Diocesano - Jerez	4:1 ✺
16.03.25	Santa Amalia - Diocesano	0:3 ✺
09.03.25	Diocesano - Calamonte	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
01.12.24	Diocesano - Arroyo	0:0
17.09.23	Arroyo - Diocesano	0:1
06.03.22	Diocesano - Arroyo	3:3
31.10.21	Arroyo - Diocesano	2:3
21.02.21	Arroyo - Diocesano	0:0
29.11.20	Diocesano - Arroyo	2:0
24.11.19	Arroyo - Diocesano	0:0

Arroyo - Diocesano: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide